Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsUnderdog Pool PicksEvery dog, pricedHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksUnderdog Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

BUFVSMIA

Buffalo Bills
BUF#9
Buffalo Bills
VS
Miami Dolphins
MIA#32
Miami Dolphins
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

BUF leads in 5 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
BUF
METRIC
MIA
+0.076
NET EPA / PLAY
-0.224
+0.204
OFF EPA / PLAY
-0.116
+0.128

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
BUF
5-1
STRAIGHT UP
83%
4-2
ATS
67%
MIA
0-5
STRAIGHT UP
0%
1-3-1
ATS
25%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
BUF
WWLWW
W2 STREAK
MIA
LLLLL
L5 STREAK

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
BUF
TENDENCY
MIA
52.5%
PASS RATE
52.5%
14.8%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
21.9%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
BUF
PLAYOFFS90.8%
CONF CHAMP5.2%
SUPER BOWL1.7%
MIA
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

14 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK17BUF @ MIABUFA+—PENDING
2026 WK11MIA @ BUFBUFS—PENDING
2025 WK10BUF @ MIABUFABUF 13 · MIA 30LOSS
2025 WK3MIA @ BUFBUFSMIA 21 · BUF 31WIN
2024 WK9MIA @ BUFBUFA+

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 14 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
14
PICKED BUF
14 of 14 games
0
PICKED MIA
0 of 14 games
10
CORRECT PICKS
10 of 12 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
+0.108
48.9%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
37.6%
197.0
POINTS FOR
70.0
171.0
POINTS AGAINST
132.0
+26
POINT DIFF
-62
49.2%
3RD DOWN CONV
41.3%
66.7%
RED ZONE TD RATE
50.0%
4.0%
NO HUDDLE RATE
2.2%
2.68
PTS / DRIVE
1.04
<1%
MIA 27 · BUF 30
WIN
2024 WK2BUF @ MIABUFBBUF 31 · MIA 10WIN
2023 WK18BUF @ MIABUFBBUF 21 · MIA 14WIN
2023 WK4MIA @ BUFBUFBMIA 20 · BUF 48WIN
2022 WK15MIA @ BUFBUFBMIA 29 · BUF 32WIN
2022 WK3BUF @ MIABUFBBUF 19 · MIA 21LOSS
2021 WK8MIA @ BUFBUFA+MIA 11 · BUF 26WIN
2021 WK2BUF @ MIABUFBBUF 35 · MIA 0WIN
2020 WK17MIA @ BUFBUFBMIA 26 · BUF 56WIN
2020 WK2BUF @ MIABUFBBUF 31 · MIA 28WIN