Skip to content
NoPunt
This Week
Predictions
Start hereHow it worksThree models vote on every game. We publish the method, the calibration and every miss.Read the methodology →
The games
Game PredictionsLive Win ProbabilityAll 32 TeamsCompare Two Teams
2026 season
Projections HubPlayer ProjectionsPlayoff PictureSuper Bowl OddsAward Odds
Where teams stand
StandingsPower RankingsPlayoff OddsStrength of ScheduleRemaining Schedule
The model
MethodologyModel HealthCalibration, in publicModel vs MarketOur Wins vs Vegas
Betting
Start hereThe EdgeThe short list of games the model flags as bets, with unit sizing and the price we would take.See this week’s Edge →
The Edge
This Week’s EdgeFlagged bets, ProModel EdgesBankroll & Sizing
Markets
Game TotalsPlayer PropsSame-Game Parlay
Pools
Survivor PicksRanked by win probabilityCirca SurvivorEntries alive + availabilityPick'em PicksEvery game, straight upConfidence Pool PicksPoints + expected pointsHow Pools Work
Getting sharper
Expected ValueClosing Line ValueWhat ATS Means
Fantasy
Start hereFantasy HubSync your league and get lineups, trade grades and waiver targets under your exact scoring.Connect a league →
Your week
Projections & Start/SitFantasy HubSync your leagueDefense vs Position
Players
Stat LeadersPlayer RatingsNoPunt Player RatingNext Gen StatsAdvanced Stats
Context
Coaching TendenciesSeason OutlookMost Dramatic Games
Results
Learn
Start hereNew here?Eleven plain-English guides, from what a spread is to how closing line value works.Start with the basics →
Betting basics
All GuidesHow Spreads WorkOdds ExplainedBankroll ManagementBetting CalculatorsFree, no login
The game
What is EPAStats GlossaryPower Rankings ExplainedHow Standings WorkHow Playoffs Work
NoPunt
About NoPuntBlogFull LedgerLedger ExplorerFilter and sort, Pro
For developers
Public JSON APIData ExportsCSV, Pro
GO PRO
NoPunt

Every NFL pick on the record, win or lose. We publish live picks before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

Get every pick before kickoff.

GO PRO

PICKS

This WeekThe EdgeSurvivor PicksPick’em PicksConfidence Pool PicksCirca SurvivorTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Playoff Picture2026 Super Bowl Odds2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersPlayer RatingsSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason ReviewModel Performance

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProDashboardPick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI DocsNFL Data API
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only, no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? NY: 1-877-8-HOPENY. Elsewhere: 1-800-MY-RESET.
PrivacyTermsAPI
2026 SEASON · HEAD-TO-HEAD

TBVSATL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TB#19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
VS
Atlanta Falcons
ATL#16
Atlanta Falcons
CHANGE TEAMS
VS

ATL leads in 5 of 7 statistical categories

STAT COMPARISON

2026 SEASON · EPA PER PLAY
TB
METRIC
ATL
-0.031
NET EPA / PLAY
+0.012
-0.088
OFF EPA / PLAY
-0.023
-0.057

BETTING RECORDS

2026 SEASON · W-L AND ATS
TB
1-5
STRAIGHT UP
17%
1-4-1
ATS
20%
ATL
2-4
STRAIGHT UP
33%
2-4
ATS
33%

RECENT FORM

2026 SEASON · LAST 5 GAMES
TB
LWLLL
ATL
LLWWL
L2 STREAK

COACHING TENDENCIES

2026 SEASON · PLAY-BY-PLAY DERIVED
TB
TENDENCY
ATL
55.8%
PASS RATE
47.6%
18.4%
4TH DOWN GO RATE
9.4%
38.2%

PLAYOFF ODDS

2026 SEASON · MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
TB
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL<1%
ATL
PLAYOFFS<1%
CONF CHAMP<1%
SUPER BOWL

RECENT MEETINGS

14 GAMES ON FILE
SEASON / WKMATCHUPOUR PICKSCORERESULT
2026 WK16TB @ ATLATLB—PENDING
2026 WK8ATL @ TBATLC—PENDING
2025 WK15ATL @ TBTBBATL 29 · TB 28LOSS
2025 WK1TB @ ATLTBBTB 23 · ATL 20WIN
2024 WK8ATL @ TBTBB

PICK HISTORY

ALL-TIME · 14 MEETINGS SINCE 2020
10
PICKED TB
10 of 14 games
4
PICKED ATL
4 of 14 games
7
CORRECT PICKS
7 of 12 graded
Weekly Picks →Power Rankings →All Teams →Defense Rankings →Schedule Strength →Standings →
DEF EPA / PLAY
-0.035
40.9%
OFF SUCCESS RATE
46.3%
100.0
POINTS FOR
119.0
112.0
POINTS AGAINST
122.0
-12
POINT DIFF
-3
3RD DOWN CONV
41.7%
46.7%
RED ZONE TD RATE
85.7%
6.6%
NO HUDDLE RATE
2.9%
1.17
PTS / DRIVE
1.53
<1%
ATL 31 · TB 26
LOSS
2024 WK5TB @ ATLATLCTB 30 · ATL 36WIN
2023 WK14TB @ ATLATLBTB 29 · ATL 25LOSS
2023 WK7ATL @ TBTBBATL 16 · TB 13LOSS
2022 WK18TB @ ATLTBBTB 17 · ATL 30LOSS
2022 WK5ATL @ TBTBBATL 15 · TB 21WIN
2021 WK13TB @ ATLTBA+TB 30 · ATL 17WIN
2021 WK2ATL @ TBTBSATL 25 · TB 48WIN
2020 WK17ATL @ TBTBAATL 27 · TB 44WIN
2020 WK15TB @ ATLTBBTB 31 · ATL 27WIN