SURVIVE
SURVIVOR POOL · WEEK 1
NFL SURVIVOR PICKS WEEK 1 2026
The model’s straight-up win probability for every Week 1 game, ranked safest to riskiest, plus which strong teams to save for later. Built for survivor pools and Circa Survivor. Our projection, not a bet.
79%
SAFEST PICK · JAX
66.2%
OUR SU ACCURACY
8
FAVORED 65%+ THIS WEEK
Updated · Week 1 2026 picks
THE SHORT ANSWER
The safest NFL survivor pick for Week 1 is the Jacksonville Jaguars, projected to beat the Cleveland Browns at 79% win probability.
The betting market's de-vigged win probability for the same game is 80%.
The next-safest plays are the Denver Broncos at 76% and the Los Angeles Chargers at 75%.
Save the Buffalo Bills (best used Week 18 against the New York Jets at 78%) and the Detroit Lions (best used Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans at 77%) for a tougher week instead of spending them now.
5 of this week's 16 games are 70% or better favorites.
THE SAFEST PICK · WEEK 1
Jacksonville Jaguars
vs Cleveland Browns · projected to win by 11
79%
WIN PROBABILITY
MARKET 80%
Already used the Jacksonville Jaguars? Pro gives you our pick from the teams you have left →
EVERY WEEK 1 GAME, SAFEST FIRST
Ranked by the model’s win probability for the favorite. Tap a game for the full breakdown. Remember: the safest pick and the right pick aren’t always the same once you factor in saving teams for later. Future Value shows how much of that team’s best remaining week you’d be spending by picking it now, with 0 meaning there’s no better spot left to save it for.
Ranked by win probability alone, the order this page has always used.
| # | Pick | Opponent | Win % | Market % | Future Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jacksonville Jaguars | vs CLE | 79% | 80% | -9pp | SAFEST |
| 2 |  Denver Broncos | at KC | 76% | 45% | -25pp | SAFEST |
| 3 |  Los Angeles Chargers | vs ARI | 75% | 81% | -8pp | SAFEST |
| 4 |  Philadelphia Eagles | vs WAS | 71% | 70% | -7pp | STRONG |
| 5 |  Miami Dolphins | at LV | 70% | 40% | -9pp | STRONG |
| 6 |  Chicago Bears | at CAR | 65% | 60% | -12pp | STRONG |
| 7 |  Seattle Seahawks | vs NE | 65% | 61% | -13pp | STRONG |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Rams | vs SF | 65% | 65% | -11pp | STRONG |
| 9 |  Detroit Lions | vs NO | 64% | 75% | -9pp | SOLID |
| 10 |  Minnesota Vikings | vs GB | 63% | 55% | -17pp | SOLID |
| 11 |  Baltimore Ravens | at IND | 63% | 60% | -25pp | SOLID |
| 12 |  Dallas Cowboys | at NYG | 63% | 61% | -18pp | SOLID |
| 13 |  Houston Texans | vs BUF | 62% | 48% | -28pp | SOLID |
| 14 |  Cincinnati Bengals | vs TB | 61% | 65% | -18pp | SOLID |
| 15 |  Pittsburgh Steelers | vs ATL | 60% | 73% | -9pp | SOLID |
| 16 |  Tennessee Titans | vs NYJ | 60% | 52% | 0 | SOLID |
Market % is the betting market’s win probability for the same team: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and ESPN BET moneylines, each book’s margin removed (additive method), then averaged (closing prices). Rows stay ranked by our Win % unless you pick a pool size; Market % never changes the order.
OUR NUMBER VS THE MARKET’S, 2026
The market's number is usually a little sharper than ours, and it has been this season: log loss 0.665 for ours, 0.651 for the market over 78 graded games (lower is better).
| Favorite won | Log loss | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NoPunt | 46-29 (61.3%) | 0.665 | 0.237 |
| The market | 49-29 (62.8%) | 0.651 | 0.229 |
78 graded 2026 games, Weeks 1-5, scored on the same games. Favorite won = how often the team a source gave more than 50% won outright. Log loss and Brier score the probability itself, and lower is better. On 11 games we and the market favored different teams: we were right on 5, the market on 6. 1 tie left out, since a tie has no winner. Market = closing moneylines, margin removed (additive method). Ours = the win probability we published for the game. Full history, 2020-2025 →
YOUR PATH THROUGH WEEK 18
A survivor pool is not 18 separate picks. Every team can be used once, so the safest team this week is often the wrong one to spend. We solve the whole remaining season at once and assign each week the team that leaves the rest of the path strongest.
THE PLAN2.7 EXPECTED WEEKS ALIVE
| WK 1 | Los Angeles Chargers | vs ARI | 75% |
| WK 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | at TEN | 69% |
| WK 3 | Detroit Lions | vs NYJ | 76% |
| WK 4 | Baltimore Ravens | vs TEN | 76% |
| WK 5 | New England Patriots | vs LV | 73% |
| WK 6 | Indianapolis Colts | vs TEN | 72% |
| WK 7 | Houston Texans | vs NYG | 66% |
| WK 8 | Green Bay Packers | vs CAR | 71% |
| WK 9 | San Francisco 49ers | vs LV | 72% |
| WK 10 | Buffalo Bills | at NYJ | 72% |
| WK 11 | Denver Broncos | vs LV | 74% |
| WK 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | vs TEN | 72% |
| WK 13 | Minnesota Vikings | vs CAR | 67% |
| WK 14 | Seattle Seahawks | vs NYG | 67% |
| WK 15 | Los Angeles Rams | vs DAL | 68% |
| WK 16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | vs CAR | 64% |
| WK 17 | Arizona Cardinals | vs LV | 63% |
| WK 18 | Kansas City Chiefs | vs LV | 72% |
Every remaining week, planned. Each team used once, so the order matters as much as the picks.
WHAT EACH PICK COSTS YOU
| TEAM | THIS WEEK | COST |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 79% | COSTS NOTHING |
| Denver Broncos | 76% | COSTS NOTHING |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 75% | COSTS NOTHING |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 71% | −0.12 WKS |
| Miami Dolphins | 70% | −0.15 WKS |
| Chicago Bears | 65% | −0.33 WKS |
| Los Angeles Rams | 65% | −0.35 WKS |
| Dallas Cowboys | 63% | −0.41 WKS |
| Minnesota Vikings | 63% | −0.43 WKS |
| Houston Texans | 62% | −0.44 WKS |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 61% | −0.48 WKS |
| Baltimore Ravens | 63% | −0.49 WKS |
Cost is what taking that team now gives up over the rest of the season, measured in weeks survived. This week 3 of 32 options cost you nothing, and the most expensive gives up 1.53 weeks. Picking the wrong safe-looking team is the mistake this catches.
TRACK YOUR POOL
This path assumes you have used nobody. Pro re-solves it around the teams your entry has already spent, prices every option against what you have left, grades each week when the game goes final, and handles strike and Circa pools.
Built on our published season projection. Two honest limits: forward win probabilities are regressed the further out they go, so the absolute survival numbers are conservative and the ranking is what carries the signal. And this maximises YOUR survival, not your edge over your pool. We do not have data on how often each team is picked.
PRO · PLANNER PREVIEW
WHAT THE PRO PLANNER BUILDS
A sample run, not your pool: a standard pool, nobody used yet, planned from Week 1 to Week 18 by the same solver Pro runs. Pro does this around the teams your entries have actually spent.
TOP 3 PATHS
Full-season plans that each open with a different team, best first. Win % is ours.
| WK | PATH 1 | PATH 2 | PATH 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC75% | JAX79% | PHI71% |
| 2 | PHI69% | LAC70% | LAC70% |
| 3 | DET76% | DET76% | DET76% |
| 4 | BAL76% | BAL76% | BAL76% |
| 5 | NE73% | NE73% | NE73% |
| 6 | IND72% | IND72% | IND72% |
| SURVIVE ALL | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Weeks 7 to 18 are planned too; the last row covers all of them.
THREE ENTRIES, ONE POOL
Each entry is planned in turn and steers off a team an earlier entry already took that week, unless it has no other choice. Here no week repeats a team.
| WK | ENTRY 1 | ENTRY 2 | ENTRY 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC75% | JAX79% | MIA70% |
| 2 | PHI69% | LAR71% | LAC70% |
| 3 | DET76% | NO64% | SF64% |
| 4 | BAL76% | CHI69% | KC64% |
| 5 | NE73% | HOU66% | GB61% |
| 6 | IND72% | NE74% | LAR69% |
| SURVIVE ALL | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
- Starts from the teams your entries have really used
- Lock a team into a week, or exclude one for the season
- Override our win % with your own for any team and week
- Standard, strikes, Circa (20 legs, ties eliminate) and two-pick weeks
- Up to three entries planned together, with every pick graded when the game goes final
Survival is the chance of winning every remaining game with no strike, from our published win probabilities; forward weeks are regressed, so the absolute numbers are conservative and the comparison between paths is what carries. It maximises your survival, not your edge over your pool, because we have no pick-popularity data.
DON’T BURN YOUR BEST TEAMS
These are the strongest teams by full-season projection. They’re tempting picks every week, but the survivor game is won by saving them for a spot where your other options are thin. Here’s each one’s best upcoming matchup, so you know when to spend them.
Projected 10.3 wins · 78% to make the playoffs
This week: 55% to win. Save for Week 18 vs NYJ (78%).
This week: 55% to win. Save for Week 18 vs NYJ (78%).
Projected 10.2 wins · 69% to make the playoffs
This week: 68% to win. Save for Week 14 vs TEN (77%).
This week: 68% to win. Save for Week 14 vs TEN (77%).
Projected 10.1 wins · 70% to make the playoffs
This week: 64% to win. Save for Week 6 vs CAR (71%).
This week: 64% to win. Save for Week 6 vs CAR (71%).
Projected 9.9 wins · 67% to make the playoffs
This week: 60% to win. Save for Week 2 vs NYG (71%).
This week: 60% to win. Save for Week 2 vs NYG (71%).
Projected 9.9 wins · 68% to make the playoffs
This week: 51% to win. Save for Week 4 vs TEN (76%).
This week: 51% to win. Save for Week 4 vs TEN (76%).
Projected 9.8 wins · 68% to make the playoffs
This week: 49% to win. Save for Week 11 vs LV (74%).
This week: 49% to win. Save for Week 11 vs LV (74%).
GET THE SURVIVOR PICK EACH WEEK
The safest play and the teams to save, in your inbox before the slate locks. Free, every week of the season.
PRO · SURVIVOR TRACKER
TRACK YOUR POOL, NOT JUST THIS WEEK
Tell the dashboard which teams you have used and it does the rest: our pick from the teams you have left, the book’s favourite and its price, a season path that spends your teams in the right order, and every pick graded when the game goes final. Standard, strike and Circa formats.
HOW TO WIN YOUR SURVIVOR POOL
Win probability first, but not blindly
Every pick above is ranked by the model’s straight-up win probability, computed from six seasons of play-by-play efficiency. That’s the right starting point: in a survivor pool you only need your team to win, so the highest win probability you can get is usually the safest path through the week. But the biggest favorite isn’t automatically your best pick, because you can only use each team once.
Save your best teams for your hardest weeks
The most common way to lose a survivor pool is running out of good options in December. If a top team is a big favorite this week but you have three other safe picks, take one of the others and save the stud for a week when your board is thin. The “save for” notes above point you at each strong team’s best remaining spot so you can plan the season, not just the week.
Late in the pool, being different matters
Survivor is single-elimination, so as entries drop, how many other people are on your team starts to matter. If everyone picks the same chalk favorite and it loses, the whole field resets together and your pick did nothing for you. Picking a slightly less popular team that still wins gains you ground on the field. Early on, take the safe favorite; deep in the money, weigh being contrarian.
One upset ends it. Respect the variance
A 78% favorite still loses about one time in five. Over a full season, upsets are not a question of if but when, which is why team management matters more than squeezing an extra point of win probability out of any single week. Use the model to stay on the right side of the odds, and plan so a normal upset doesn’t catch you with no strong teams left.
QUESTIONS
The model's safest Week 1 pick is Jacksonville Jaguars, projected to beat Cleveland Browns with a 79% win probability. In a survivor pool you want the highest win probability you're comfortable spending, balanced against saving your best teams for later weeks.
Each week you pick one team to win straight up (no point spread). If they win you advance; if they lose you're eliminated. You cannot pick the same team twice all season, so it's as much about planning the whole season as winning this week. Last entrant standing wins the pot.
Circa Survivor is the largest NFL survivor contest, run out of Las Vegas, with tens of thousands of $1,000 entries and a prize pool into the millions. The same strategy applies to any survivor or last-man-standing pool: maximize weekly win probability while planning your team usage across the season.
Not always. Two things matter beyond this week's win probability: don't burn a strong team you'll want for a tougher week later, and remember survivor is single-elimination, so as the pool shrinks, differentiating from the field (picking a team fewer others are on) can be worth more than a marginally safer pick. Win probability is the starting point, not the whole answer.
Next to our win probability the table shows the market's own number for each game: the moneylines from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and ESPN BET with each book's margin removed (additive method), averaged. On a single game the two can sit several points apart, which is why both are shown. Over 2020-2025 the market's closing line was the more accurate forecast every season, and this page grades both against 2026 results.
NoPunt's straight-up pick accuracy is 66.2% across six seasons, every pick graded in public. These survivor rankings use the same model's projected win probability for each game. Past results are not a guarantee, and survivor is single-elimination, so one upset ends your entry.
The safest NFL survivor pick for Week 1, 2026 is the Jacksonville Jaguars, projected to beat the Cleveland Browns at 79% win probability.
Right now, save Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions rather than spending them this week. They project as strong teams with an easier matchup coming up, so using a weaker pick now and holding your best teams keeps more safe plays available later in the season.
Also bet the games? The Edgeis the small set of games our model flags as actual bets each week, with sizing and the model’s read on the price.
SEE THE EDGE →Projections are the model’s own, derived from team efficiency, not betting lines. Survivor is single-elimination. Past results. Not financial advice.