PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

2025 SEASON COMPLETE · 1070-540-5 ALL-TIME

WE NEVER
PUNT.

We pick every NFL game and grade every result in public. 1070-540-5 over six seasons, every loss still on the page. The picks are free and post before kickoff. Nothing here gets deleted.

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EXPLORE OUR TRACK RECORD →

1070-540-5

ALL-TIME RECORD

66.5%

SU ACCURACY

1,615

GRADED PICKS

2026 SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

SEE THE MATCHUP →

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

2026 SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1

LOOKING AHEAD TO 2026

THE FORWARD READ, WHILE THE PICKS ARE OUT

SEASON PROJECTIONS

Win totals, playoff odds & division races for all 32 teams — 10,000 sims on the real 2026 schedule

THE 2026 OPENER

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks, Week 1 — the full matchup breakdown

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Every team’s 2026 slate ranked by difficulty, toughest to easiest

FINAL WEEK · 2025 SEASON

2025 SEASON COMPLETE

W18 · SPICK ✓

NYJ 8

BUF 35

PICK: BUF

W18 · SPICK ✓

TEN 7

JAX 41

PICK: 

PERFORMANCE BY TIER

ALL-TIME STRAIGHT-UP ACCURACY · BARS MEASURED FROM THE 50% COIN FLIP, NOT FROM ZERO

83.7%

S

72-14

75.1%

A+

151-50

68.0%

A

68-32

66.3%

B

550-280

58.3%

THE EDGE

WHY SUBSCRIBERS STAY

Tiered Confidence

Not every pick is equal. S-tier is our highest conviction on the outcome. Note that a higher tier means a higher hit rate, not a bigger betting edge — we stake every play the same.

The Edge

Each week our model flags the Edge — the games it would actually bet, with unit sizing. A proven, profitable strategy since 2020 — every pick on the public record. (Past results, not financial advice.)

Public Ledger

Go look. Every loss is right there in the table — we don't delete bad weeks. The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026; from Week 1 2026 every pick is timestamped before kickoff.

SEE WHAT PRO UNLOCKS →

POWER RANKINGS

2025 SEASON · FULL 32-TEAM RANKINGS →

#1

LAR

+0.206

NET EPA/PLAY

#2

+0.205

NET EPA/PLAY

#3

BUF

+0.152

NET EPA/PLAY

#4

SEA

+0.150

NET EPA/PLAY

#5

RECENT PICKS

FULL LEDGER ON RESULTS PAGE

Week	Pick	Tier	Spread	Result	ATS
W18	PIT	C	+4.5	W	✓
W18	PHI	A+	-3.0	L	✗
W18	CHI	B	-3.5	L	✗
W18	NE	A	-14.0	W	✓
W18	BUF	S	-12.5	W	✓

VIEW FULL RESULTS →

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST-CONFIDENCE WINS

BAL WIN

W18 · 2024 · S TIER

85%

WON BY 25

BUF WIN

W16 · 2024 · S TIER

85%

WON BY 3

HOU WIN

W16 · 2025 · S TIER

86%

WON BY 2

IND WIN

W8 · 2025 · S TIER

86%

WON BY 24

GET NOTIFIED WHEN WE'RE BACK

The 2026 season kicks off in September. Drop your email and we'll let you know when picks go live.

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6 SEASONS ON RECORD

FULL SEASON REVIEW →

2020

172-83-1

67.5%

2021

170-101-1

62.7%

2022

178-91-2

66.2%

2023

176-96

64.7%

2024

189-83

69.5%

2025

185-86-1

68.3%

WHAT IS NOPUNT?

THE MODEL BEHIND THE PICKS

THE MODEL

NoPunt is an NFL prediction platform. The model reads 24 engineered features: exponentially-weighted team form (point differential, turnover margin, success rates, win rate, defensive pass EPA), an Elo differential, venue-specific home field, rest and bye structure, and injury-weighted availability. The higher the model's conviction on a game, the higher its confidence tier. It covers every regular-season game, grading each pick S through C so you know where the real edges are.

THE LEDGER

What separates NoPunt from every other picks account: a public ledger. Every loss stays on the record. No deleted tweets, no edited screenshots, no retroactive claims. The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026, and live picks are timestamped before kickoff from Week 1 2026 — the distinction is on the record too. Beyond game picks, NoPunt provides weekly player prop projections, same-game parlay correlation data, over/under totals, PPR fantasy rankings, and full-season outlooks — all driven by the same underlying model and updated every week of the season.