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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
176-96
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2023 SEASON
176-96
2023 SEASON · 272 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
64.7%
ACCURACY
+$10
PROFIT
54.3%
ATS RATE
W1
STREAK
W9
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
62.5%
A+
75.7%
A
57.9%
B
66.2%
C
55.6%

ATS BY TIER

S
37.5%
A+
52.8%
A
36.8%
B
58.3%
C
52.9%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2023 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
272
CORRECT
176
ATS RECORD
140-118-14
ATS RATE
54.3%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 54.3% — 1.9 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
54.3%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

272 OF 1615 GAMES
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2023W18BUF @ MIABUFB-2.521-14WIN✓+$1
2023W18LA @ SFSFB-5.521-20LOSS✗-$1
2023W18CHI @ GBGBB-2.59-17WIN✓+$1
2023W18DAL @ WASDALA+-13.038-10WIN✓+$0
2023W18DEN @ LVLVB-3.514-27WIN✓+$1
2023W18KC @ LACKCB+3.513-12WIN✓+$2
2023W18PHI @ NYGPHIB-4.510-27LOSS✗-$1
2023W18SEA @ ARIARIC+2.521-20LOSS✓-$1
2023W18JAX @ TENJAXB-3.520-28LOSS✗-$1
2023W18CLE @ CINCLEC+7.514-31LOSS✗-$1
2023W18MIN @ DETDETA-3.520-30WIN✓+$1
2023W18TB @ CARTBB-5.09-0WIN✓+$0
2023W18NYJ @ NENEB-2.517-3LOSS✗-$1
2023W18ATL @ NONOB-3.517-48WIN✓+$1
2023W18HOU @ INDINDB+1.523-19LOSS✗-$1
2023W18PIT @ BALBALC+3.017-10LOSS✗-$1
2023W17GB @ MINMINC-1.033-10LOSS✗-$1
2023W17LAC @ DENDENB-3.59-16WIN✓+$1
2023W17CIN @ KCKCB-7.517-25WIN✓+$0
2023W17PIT @ SEAPITC+4.530-23WIN✓+$2
2023W17CAR @ JAXJAXB-3.50-26WIN✓+$1
2023W17NO @ TBTBB-2.523-13LOSS✗-$1
2023W17ATL @ CHICHIC-3.017-37WIN✓+$1
2023W17TEN @ HOUHOUB-5.03-26WIN✓+$0
2023W17ARI @ PHIPHIA+-12.035-31LOSS✗-$1
2023W17LA @ NYGLAA-6.026-25WIN✗+$0
2023W17NE @ BUFBUFA+-15.021-27WIN✗+$0
2023W17SF @ WASSFA+-14.027-10WIN✓+$0
2023W17MIA @ BALBALB-3.019-56WIN✓+$1
2023W17LV @ INDINDB-3.520-23WIN✗+$1
2023W17DET @ DALDETC+5.519-20LOSS✓-$1
2023W17NYJ @ CLECLEA+-6.520-37WIN✓+$0
2023W16BAL @ SFSFB-6.533-19LOSS✗-$1
2023W16NYG @ PHIPHIA+-14.025-33WIN✗+$0
2023W16LV @ KCKCB-11.020-14LOSS✗-$1
2023W16NE @ DENDENB-7.026-23LOSS✗-$1
2023W16DAL @ MIAMIAB-1.520-22WIN✓+$1
2023W16ARI @ CHICHIB-4.516-27WIN✓+$1
2023W16JAX @ TBTBB+2.012-30WIN✓+$1
2023W16CLE @ HOUCLEC-3.036-22WIN✓+$1
2023W16GB @ CARGBB-3.533-30WIN✗+$1
2023W16DET @ MINDETC-2.530-24WIN✓+$1
2023W16IND @ ATLATLC-3.010-29WIN✓+$1
2023W16SEA @ TENSEAB-3.020-17WINP+$1
2023W16WAS @ NYJWASC+3.028-30LOSS✓-$1
2023W16BUF @ LACBUFB-13.024-22WIN✗+$0
2023W16CIN @ PITCINC-3.011-34LOSS✗-$1
2023W16NO @ LALAB-4.022-30WIN✓+$1
2023W15PHI @ SEAPHIB-5.017-20LOSS✗-$1
2023W15BAL @ JAXBALB-4.023-7WIN✓+$1
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7