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PICKS

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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

RECENT PICKS

RECEIPTS
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

Every NFL pick we've published since 2020, with the final score and the win or loss attached. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.

189-83
SU RECORD
69.5%
ACCURACY
+$36
PROFIT · NO-VIG
56.0%
ATS RATE
2024 SEASON · 272 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC · UPDATED OCT 13, 2026
WEEK 5 · 2026MOST RECENT GRADED WEEK
8-6-1
RECORD
57.1%
STRAIGHT UP
-1.92u
UNITS
15
GAMES
Best call: JAX at 74%Worst miss: DAL at 68%
WHAT WE GOT WRONG · WEEK 5 2026

Our highest-probability miss this week: the Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability lost 16-24.

The midweek injury re-pick of Broncos at Chargers to the Broncos won 23-17.

The B-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 5-5 (50%) against a 66% all-time rate.

◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
85.7%
A+
82.8%
A
77.8%
B
66.7%
C
62.5%

ATS BY TIER

S
57.1%
A+
55.2%
A
59.3%
B
54.5%
C
57.8%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
62.3%
MID (3.5-7)
75.6%
BIG (7.5+)
70.2%
CLOSE (0-3): 66-40 · MID (3.5-7): 90-29 · BIG (7.5+): 33-14

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
46.0%
29-34 (63 underdog picks)

MODEL CONVICTION

HIGH
71.6%
LEAN
62.5%
HIGH: 149-59 · LEAN: 40-24

HOME / AWAY

HOME
69.6%
AWAY
69.3%
HOME: 110-48 · AWAY: 79-35

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
76.6%
UNDERDOG
46.0%
FAV: 160-49 · DOG: 29-34

2024 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
272
WIN
189
ATS RECORD
150-118-4
ATS RATE
56.0%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.5%
2021
62.7%
2022
66.2%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.3%
2026
61.5%
2020: 172-83-1 · 2021: 170-101-1 · 2022: 178-91-2 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-86-1 · 2026: 48-30-1

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 56.0% , 3.6 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
56.0%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER20212223242526
S80%
12-3
69%
11-5
90%
9-1
63%
5-3
86%
12-2
96%
23-1
—
A+73%
29-11
76%
25-8
76%
19-6
76%

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2026
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
2026
9-7
9-7
10-6
12-4
8-7
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

PROFIT is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. It is a comparable series, not take-home returns. Past results. Not financial advice.

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 32 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
46-24
-1
DEC
41-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
31-18
+10
OCT
49-23
-3
NOV
33-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+3
OCT
46-28
-3
NOV
35-22
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
39-20
-2
DEC
47-28
-2
JAN
8-8
-3
SEP
35-29
+13
OCT
44-16
+13
NOV
45-14
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
51-20
+3
DEC
41-22
-3
JAN
9-7
-3
SEP
28-20
+3
OCT
20-10

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more, so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$1
84.1% SU
74-14 (88)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
160-53 (213)
A
-$1
68.9% SU
73-33 (106)
B
+$54
65.8% SU
573-298 (871)
C
+$50
58.0% SU
238-172 (410)

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST-CONFIDENCE WINS
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W6 · 2023 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 11
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W3 · 2023 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 31
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W17 · 2022 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 3
Houston Texans
HOU WIN
W16 · 2025 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 2

WORST MISSES

HIGHEST-CONFIDENCE LOSSES
Buffalo Bills
BUF WIN
W18 · 2024 · S TIER
83%
LOST BY 7
Buffalo Bills
BUF WIN
W5 · 2025 · S TIER
82%
LOST BY 3
Green Bay Packers
GB WIN
W18 · 2024 · S TIER
82%
LOST BY 2
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W8 · 2023 · S TIER
81%
LOST BY 15

MOST DRAMATIC

2024 SEASON
GB@PHI
WEEK 1
PHI won it16 WP SWINGS
ATL@PHI
WEEK 2

RECENT PICKS

LAST 15 GRADED · 1,694 ON RECORD
SEASONWEEKMATCHUPPICKTIERSPREADSCORESUATSML P/L
2026W5BUF @ LALAB-3.537-34LOSS✗-$1
2026W5BAL @ ATLATLC-3.030-23LOSS✗-$1
2026W5SF @ SEASEAB-3.032-29LOSS✗-$1
2026W5DET @ ARIDETB-5.545-21WIN✓+$0
2026W5DEN @ LACDENA-3.523-17WIN✓+$1
2026W5NYG @ WASNYGC+3.527-27PUSH✓+$0
2026W5MIN @ NOMINB-2.523-13WIN✓+$1
2026W5LV @ NENEA-3.517-45WIN✓+$1
2026W5IND @ PITPITB-3.022-34WIN✓+$1
2026W5HOU @ TENHOUB-7.026-3WIN✓+$0
2026W5CLE @ NYJCLEB+2.512-17LOSS✗-$1
2026W5CIN @ MIACINB-7.031-24WINP+$0
2026W5CHI @ GBCHIB-1.57-31LOSS✗-$1
2026W5PHI @ JAXJAXA-7.517-19WIN✗+$0
2026W5TB @ DALDALB-9.524-16LOSS✗-$1
VIEW FULL LEDGER · ALL 1,694 PICKS →
Weekly Picks →How We Pick →Season Review →Model Edge (CLV) →
SEEN ENOUGH?
The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026, the model saw only prior weeks for each game. Live picks publish before kickoff from Week 1 2026. Pro adds the Edge: the games the model flags as bets.
GO PROSEASON REVIEW →
OR GET THE FREE PICK EVERY WEEK
Bars are scaled to the 47–57% range, not 0–100%, so a three-point gap is visible. Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.
28-9
83%
24-5
70%
26-11
75%
9-3
A100%
4-0
25%
2-6
45%
5-6
58%
11-8
78%
21-6
81%
25-6
83%
5-1
B66%
73-38
68%
106-49
67%
111-55
66%
102-52
67%
92-46
60%
66-44
56%
23-18
C63%
54-32
43%
26-34
58%
34-25
56%
30-24
63%
40-24
64%
45-25
50%
9-9
Min 3 picks per tier/season; the record is under each rate and cells under 10 picks are greyed. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-6
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
9-7
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
9-4
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7
ATL won it15 WP SWINGS
LAR@SEA
WEEK 9
SEA won it14 WP SWINGS
DEN@CIN
WEEK 17
DEN won it13 WP SWINGS