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PICKS

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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

RECENT PICKS

RECEIPTS
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

Every NFL pick since 2020, with the final score and the win or loss attached: the 2020-2025 seasons from our walk-forward backtest, and every 2026 pick, captured before kickoff; the ledger marks any we can't prove. Nothing edited, nothing deleted.

75-45-1
SU RECORD
62.5%
ACCURACY
48.3%
ATS RATE
2026 SEASON · 121 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC · UPDATED NOV 3, 2026
WEEK 8 · 2026MOST RECENT GRADED WEEK
11-3
RECORD
78.6%
STRAIGHT UP
+3.85u
UNITS
14
GAMES
Best call: CIN at 78%Worst miss: DAL at 69%
WHAT WE GOT WRONG · WEEK 8 2026

Our highest-probability miss this week: the Dallas Cowboys at 69% win probability lost 30-33.

The midweek injury re-pick of Chargers at Rams to the Rams won 24-9.

The B-tier underperformed its historical hit rate this week: 3-2 (60%) against a 66% all-time rate.

◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ CAPTURED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NOTHING DELETED◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ TIMES WE CAN'T PROVE ARE MARKED◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ CAPTURED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NOTHING DELETED◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ TIMES WE CAN'T PROVE ARE MARKED

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
80.0%
A+
83.3%
A
61.5%
B
58.2%
C
55.2%

ATS BY TIER

S
0.0%
A+
55.6%
A
30.8%
B
48.1%
C
57.1%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
52.8%
MID (3.5-7)
72.9%
BIG (7.5+)
63.2%
CLOSE (0-3): 28-25 · MID (3.5-7): 35-13 · BIG (7.5+): 12-7

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
43.5%
10-13 (23 underdog picks)

MODEL CONVICTION

HIGH
64.8%
LEAN
55.2%
HIGH: 59-32 · LEAN: 16-13

HOME / AWAY

HOME
61.0%
AWAY
65.1%
HOME: 47-30 · AWAY: 28-15

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
67.0%
UNDERDOG
43.5%
FAV: 65-32 · DOG: 10-13

2026 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
121
WIN
75
ATS RECORD
56-60-5
ATS RATE
48.3%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.5%
2021
62.7%
2022
66.2%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.3%
2026
62.5%
2020: 172-83-1 · 2021: 170-101-1 · 2022: 178-91-2 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-86-1 · 2026: 75-45-1

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 48.3% , -4.1 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
48.3%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER20212223242526
S80%
12-3
69%
11-5
90%
9-1
63%
5-3
86%
12-2
96%
23-1
80%
4-1
A+73%
29-11
76%
25-8
76%

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2026
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
2026
9-7
9-7
10-6
12-4
8-7
7-7
9-5
11-3
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

PROFIT is a flat 1u stake priced at the model’s spread-implied, vig-free moneyline, a fair price, not one a sportsbook offers. It is a comparable series, not take-home returns. Past results. Not financial advice.

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 33 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
46-24
-1
DEC
41-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
31-18
+10
OCT
49-23
-3
NOV
33-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+3
OCT
46-28
-3
NOV
35-22
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
39-20
-2
DEC
47-28
-2
JAN
8-8
-3
SEP
35-29
+13
OCT
44-16
+13
NOV
45-14
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
51-20
+3
DEC
41-22
-3
JAN
9-7
-3
SEP
28-20
+2
OCT
37-22
+3
NOV
10-3

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more, so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.5% SU
76-15 (91)
A+
+$0
75.8% SU
166-53 (219)
A
-$3
67.3% SU
76-37 (113)
B
+$56
65.8% SU
582-303 (885)
C
+$52
58.1% SU
245-177 (422)

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST-CONFIDENCE WINS
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W6 · 2023 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 11
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W3 · 2023 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 31
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W17 · 2022 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 3
Houston Texans
HOU WIN
W16 · 2025 · S TIER
86%
WON BY 2

WORST MISSES

HIGHEST-CONFIDENCE LOSSES
Buffalo Bills
BUF WIN
W18 · 2024 · S TIER
83%
LOST BY 7
Buffalo Bills
BUF WIN
W5 · 2025 · S TIER
82%
LOST BY 3
Green Bay Packers
GB WIN
W18 · 2024 · S TIER
82%
LOST BY 2
Kansas City Chiefs
KC WIN
W8 · 2023 · S TIER
81%
LOST BY 15

MOST DRAMATIC

2026 SEASON
ARI@LAR
WEEK 6
ARI won it13 WP SWINGS
SF@SEA
WEEK 5

RECENT PICKS

LAST 15 GRADED · 1,736 ON RECORD
SEASONWEEKMATCHUPPICKTIERSPREADSCORESUATSML P/L
2026W8CHI @ SEASEAB-3.034-17LOSS✗-$1
2026W8PHI @ WASPHIC+6.010-27LOSS✗-$1
2026W8NE @ MIANEA-7.024-19WIN✗+$0
2026W8KC @ DENDENB+1.524-28WIN✓+$1
2026W8LAC @ LALAA+-6.59-24WIN✓+$0
2026W8TEN @ CINCINA+-12.536-43WIN✗+$0
2026W8MIN @ DETDETC-3.015-19WIN✓+$1
2026W8LV @ NYJLVC+1.538-33WIN✓+$1
2026W8IND @ JAXJAXA+-10.07-42WIN✓+$0
2026W8CLE @ PITPITB-3.56-27WIN✓+$1
2026W8BAL @ BUFBUFA-3.010-36WIN✓+$1
2026W8ATL @ TBTBC-2.50-16WIN✓+$1
2026W8ARI @ DALDALB-7.033-30LOSS✗-$1
2026W8CAR @ GBGBB-3.519-27WIN✓+$1
2026W7DAL @ PHIPHIC+4.538-21LOSS✗-$1
VIEW FULL LEDGER · ALL 1,736 PICKS →
Weekly Picks →How We Pick →Season Review →Model Edge (CLV) →
SEEN ENOUGH?
The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026, the model saw only prior weeks for each game. Live picks from Week 1 2026 are captured before kickoff; the ledger marks any we can't prove. Pro adds the Edge: the games the model flags as bets.
GO PROSEASON REVIEW →
OR GET THE FREE PICK EVERY WEEK
Bars are scaled to the 47–57% range, not 0–100%, so a three-point gap is visible. Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.
19-6
76%
28-9
83%
24-5
70%
26-11
83%
15-3
A100%
4-0
25%
2-6
45%
5-6
58%
11-8
78%
21-6
81%
25-6
62%
8-5
B66%
73-38
68%
106-49
67%
111-55
66%
102-52
67%
92-46
60%
66-44
58%
32-23
C63%
54-32
43%
26-34
58%
34-25
56%
30-24
63%
40-24
64%
45-25
53%
16-14
Min 3 picks per tier/season; the record is under each rate and cells under 10 picks are greyed. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-6
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
9-7
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
9-4
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-4
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7
SF won it11 WP SWINGS
GB@NYJ
WEEK 2
NYJ won it10 WP SWINGS
GB@DET
WEEK 7
DET won it10 WP SWINGS