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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
1070-545
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025
1070-545
6 SEASONS · 1,615 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
66.5%
ACCURACY
+$102
PROFIT
51.5%
ATS RATE
W1
STREAK
W12
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
82.8%
A+
75.1%
A
68.0%
B
65.9%
C
58.3%

ATS BY TIER

S
48.3%
A+
51.3%
A
45.0%
B
52.0%
C
52.7%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

ALL-TIME SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1615
CORRECT
1070
ATS RECORD
814-768-33
ATS RATE
51.5%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 51.5% — -0.9 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
51.5%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

1615 GAMES TRACKED
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2025W2LA @ TENLAA+-5.533-19WIN✓+$0
2025W2CHI @ DETDETS-6.021-52WIN✓+$0
2025W2CLE @ BALBALS-12.517-41WIN✓+$0
2025W2JAX @ CINCINB-3.527-31WIN✓+$1
2025W2BUF @ NYJBUFA+-6.030-10WIN✓+$0
2025W2WAS @ GBGBB-3.518-27WIN✓+$1
2025W1MIN @ CHIMINA-1.527-24WIN✓+$1
2025W1BAL @ BUFBALC-1.540-41LOSS✗-$1
2025W1DET @ GBDETB+1.513-27LOSS✗-$1
2025W1HOU @ LALAB-3.59-14WIN✓+$1
2025W1TEN @ DENDENS-8.512-20WIN✗+$0
2025W1SF @ SEASEAB+2.517-13LOSS✗-$1
2025W1MIA @ INDINDC-1.58-33WIN✓+$1
2025W1ARI @ NOARIB-6.020-13WIN✓+$0
2025W1CAR @ JAXJAXB-4.510-26WIN✓+$1
2025W1TB @ ATLTBB-1.523-20WIN✓+$1
2025W1NYG @ WASWASA+-6.06-21WIN✓+$0
2025W1CIN @ CLECINA+-5.517-16WIN✗+$0
2025W1PIT @ NYJPITB-3.034-32WIN✗+$1
2025W1LV @ NENEC-2.520-13LOSS✗-$1
2025W1KC @ LACKCC-3.021-27LOSS✗-$1
2025W1DAL @ PHIPHIA+-8.520-24WIN✗+$0
2024W18MIN @ DETDETB-3.09-31WIN✓+$1
2024W18LAC @ LVLACB-7.034-20WIN✓+$0
2024W18MIA @ NYJMIAB+1.520-32LOSS✗-$1
2024W18SF @ ARIARIB-4.524-47WIN✓+$1
2024W18SEA @ LALAA+7.530-25LOSS✓-$1
2024W18KC @ DENKCC+10.50-38LOSS✗-$1
2024W18HOU @ TENHOUB+2.523-14WIN✓+$1
2024W18CAR @ ATLATLA+-7.544-38LOSS✗-$1
2024W18NO @ TBTBA+-14.519-27WIN✗+$0
2024W18CHI @ GBGBS-10.024-22LOSS✗-$1
2024W18JAX @ INDINDB-3.523-26WIN✗+$1
2024W18BUF @ NEBUFS-3.016-23LOSS✗-$1
2024W18NYG @ PHIPHIS-3.013-20WIN✓+$1
2024W18WAS @ DALDALC+7.023-19LOSS✓-$1
2024W18CIN @ PITPITC+2.519-17LOSS✓-$1
2024W18CLE @ BALBALS-19.510-35WIN✓+$0
2024W17DET @ SFDETA-4.040-34WIN✓+$1
2024W17ATL @ WASWASB-3.524-30WIN✓+$1
2024W17GB @ MINMINC+1.025-27WIN✓+$1
2024W17MIA @ CLEMIAA-3.020-3WIN✓+$1
2024W17DAL @ PHIPHIB-7.57-41WIN✓+$0
2024W17LV @ NONOC+2.025-10LOSS✗-$1
2024W17IND @ NYGINDA-7.533-45LOSS✗-$1
2024W17CAR @ TBTBA+-9.514-48WIN✓+$0
2024W17NYJ @ BUFBUFS-10.014-40WIN✓+$0
2024W17TEN @ JAXJAXB+1.013-20WIN✓+$1
2024W17ARI @ LALAA+-6.59-13WIN✗+$0
2024W17DEN @ CINDENC+3.524-30LOSS✗-$1
PAGE 6 OF 33
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7