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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
172-84
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2020 SEASON
172-84
2020 SEASON · 256 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
67.5%
ACCURACY
+$12
PROFIT
45.3%
ATS RATE
W2
STREAK
W11
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
80.0%
A+
72.5%
A
100.0%
B
65.8%
C
62.8%

ATS BY TIER

S
46.7%
A+
52.5%
A
25.0%
B
43.2%
C
45.3%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2020 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
256
CORRECT
172
ATS RECORD
116-140
ATS RATE
45.3%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 45.3% — -7.1 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
45.3%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

256 OF 1615 GAMES
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2020W14WAS @ SFSFB-3.023-15LOSS✗-$1
2020W14ATL @ LACATLC+1.017-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W14NO @ PHINOS-7.521-24LOSS✗-$1
2020W14GB @ DETGBA+-9.531-24WIN✗+$0
2020W14NYJ @ SEASEAA+-16.53-40WIN✓+$0
2020W14IND @ LVINDC-2.544-27WIN✓+$1
2020W14KC @ MIAKCB-7.533-27WIN✗+$0
2020W14TEN @ JAXTENA+-7.531-10WIN✓+$0
2020W14ARI @ NYGNYGC+3.026-7LOSS✗-$1
2020W14DEN @ CARDENC+4.032-27WIN✓+$2
2020W14MIN @ TBMINC+7.014-26LOSS✗-$1
2020W14DAL @ CINDALC-3.030-7WIN✓+$1
2020W14HOU @ CHIHOUC-1.07-36LOSS✗-$1
2020W14NE @ LALAC-5.03-24WIN✓+$0
2020W13DAL @ BALBALA+-8.517-34WIN✓+$0
2020W13BUF @ SFBUFC+1.534-24WIN✓+$1
2020W13WAS @ PITPITA+-5.523-17LOSS✗-$1
2020W13DEN @ KCKCA+-13.016-22WIN✗+$0
2020W13PHI @ GBGBA+-8.016-30WIN✓+$0
2020W13NE @ LACNEC+2.545-0WIN✓+$1
2020W13NYG @ SEASEAB-11.017-12LOSS✗-$1
2020W13LA @ ARILAC-2.538-28WIN✓+$1
2020W13JAX @ MINMINA+-10.524-27WIN✗+$0
2020W13IND @ HOUHOUC+3.526-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W13CLE @ TENTENB-4.041-35LOSS✗-$1
2020W13LV @ NYJLVB-7.531-28WIN✗+$0
2020W13DET @ CHICHIB-3.034-30LOSS✗-$1
2020W13NO @ ATLNOB-2.521-16WIN✓+$1
2020W13CIN @ MIAMIAA+-10.57-19WIN✓+$0
2020W12BAL @ PITPITB-10.514-19WIN✗+$0
2020W12SEA @ PHISEAC-6.523-17WIN✗+$0
2020W12CHI @ GBGBA+-7.525-41WIN✓+$0
2020W12KC @ TBKCB-3.527-24WIN✗+$1
2020W12NO @ DENNOB-17.031-3WIN✓+$0
2020W12SF @ LALAB-5.023-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W12NYG @ CINNYGB-6.519-17WIN✗+$0
2020W12LAC @ BUFBUFB-4.517-27WIN✓+$1
2020W12CAR @ MINMINB-3.027-28WIN✗+$1
2020W12TEN @ INDINDB-3.045-26LOSS✗-$1
2020W12MIA @ NYJMIAB-7.520-3WIN✓+$0
2020W12ARI @ NENEB+1.017-20WIN✓+$1
2020W12CLE @ JAXCLEA+-7.527-25WIN✗+$0
2020W12LV @ ATLLVC-3.56-43LOSS✗-$1
2020W12WAS @ DALDALB-2.541-16LOSS✗-$1
2020W12HOU @ DETHOUB-3.041-25WIN✓+$1
2020W11LA @ TBTBC-4.027-24LOSS✗-$1
2020W11KC @ LVKCC-7.535-31WIN✗+$0
2020W11DAL @ MINMINA+-7.031-28LOSS✗-$1
2020W11GB @ INDGBC+1.531-34LOSS✗-$1
2020W11NYJ @ LACLACB-10.028-34WIN✗+$0
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7