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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
1048-516
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025
1048-516
6 SEASONS · 1,564 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
67.0%
ACCURACY
+$525
PROFIT
+29.1%
DISAGREE ROI
52.4%
ATS RATE
W5
STREAK
W13
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
82.5%
A+
72.0%
A
71.8%
B
66.7%
C
59.7%

ATS BY TIER

S
47.8%
A+
47.9%
A
49.4%
B
52.8%
C
56.1%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
57.0%
MID (3.5-7)
68.6%
BIG (7.5+)
80.9%
CLOSE (0-3): 340-257 · MID (3.5-7): 412-189 · BIG (7.5+): 296-70

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
51.6%
148-139 (287 underdog picks)

MODEL CONSENSUS

UNANIMOUS
69.5%
SPLIT (2-1)
59.7%
UNANIMOUS: 808-354 · SPLIT: 240-162

HOME / AWAY

HOME
68.0%
AWAY
65.7%
HOME: 592-278 · AWAY: 456-238

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.5%
UNDERDOG
51.6%
FAV: 900-377 · DOG: 148-139

SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1564
CORRECT
1048
DISAGREE PLAYS
287
DISAGREE WINS
148
ATS RECORD
803-729-32
ATS RATE
52.4%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.9%
2021
65.6%
2022
64.5%
2023
64.7%
2024
70.3%
2025
69.0%
2020: 163-77 · 2021: 168-88 · 2022: 165-91 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-80 · 2025: 187-84

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 52.4% — 0.0 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
52.4%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S75%67%91%75%91%88%
A+74%74%66%71%74%73%
A78%85%90%50%71%71%
B

DISAGREE PROFIT CURVE

CUMULATIVE P/L ON VEGAS-DISAGREE PLAYS · 1U FLAT ($1) STAKES
$0+$50+$83202020212022202320242025

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
10-6
10-5
9-5
8-6
11-3
8-6
11-3
11-3
7-7
12-4
10-5
9-7
11-5
11-5
13-3
2021
9-7
11-5
11-5
12-4
12-2
11-2
9-6
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
8-6
2022
10-6
1-0
7-9
8-8
11-5
9-5
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
10-4
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
14-2
9-5
11-4
5-8
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
9-4
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
12-4
11-4
11-3
11-3
9-4
2025
12-4
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

DISAGREE PLAY PROFIT BY MONTH · 30 MONTHS
+12
SEP
22-10
+18
OCT
38-20
+23
NOV
47-22
+20
DEC
43-22
+10
JAN
13-3
+10
SEP
20-12
+37
OCT
53-19
+9
NOV
34-26
+22
DEC
42-18
+5
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
18-16
+19
OCT
46-27
+9
NOV
34-24
+26
DEC
44-17
+15
JAN
23-7
+17
SEP
33-16
+25
OCT
49-24
+16
NOV
38-20
+18
DEC
48-27
-1
JAN
8-9
+7
SEP
33-27
+32
OCT
46-14
+31
NOV
46-14
+38
DEC
56-17
+0
JAN
8-8
+28
SEP
46-17
+19
OCT
39-19
+30
NOV
50-20
+21
DEC
42-22
+4
JAN
10-6

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$65
82.5% SU
94-20 (114)
A+
+$80
72.0% SU
154-60 (214)
A
+$29
71.8% SU
56-22 (78)
B
+$236
66.7% SU
504-252 (756)
C
+$114
59.7% SU
240-162 (402)

FULL LEDGER

1564 GAMES TRACKED
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2022W16HOU @ TENTENB-3.019-14LOSS✗-$1
2022W16ATL @ BALBALB-6.59-17WIN✓+$1
2022W16BUF @ CHIBUFS-8.035-13WIN✓+$1
2022W16SEA @ KCKCA+-10.510-24WIN✓+$1
2022W16DET @ CARDETB-2.523-37LOSS✗-$1
2022W16NO @ CLECLEB-3.017-10LOSS✗-$1
2022W16NYG @ MINMINB-4.524-27WIN✗+$1
2022W16CIN @ NECINB-3.022-18WIN✓+$1
2022W16JAX @ NYJJAX ▲B+2.519-3WIN✓+$1
2022W15LA @ GBGBA-8.012-24WIN✓+$1
2022W15NYG @ WASWASB-4.520-12LOSS✗-$1
2022W15CIN @ TBCINB-3.534-23WIN✓+$1
2022W15TEN @ LACLACB-3.014-17WINP+$1
2022W15ARI @ DENARI ▲B+1.515-24LOSS✗-$1
2022W15NE @ LVLVB-1.024-30WIN✓+$1
2022W15DAL @ JAXDALA+-4.034-40LOSS✗-$1
2022W15PIT @ CARCARC-2.524-16LOSS✗-$1
2022W15DET @ NYJDET ▲B+2.020-17WIN✓+$1
2022W15PHI @ CHIPHIS-8.525-20WIN✗+$1
2022W15ATL @ NONOB-5.018-21WIN✗+$1
2022W15KC @ HOUKCS-14.530-24WIN✗+$1
2022W15MIA @ BUFBUFB-7.029-32WIN✗+$1
2022W15BAL @ CLEBAL ▲B+2.53-13LOSS✗-$1
2022W15IND @ MINMINA-3.536-39WIN✗+$1
2022W15SF @ SEASFB-3.021-13WIN✓+$1
2022W14NE @ ARINEB-2.027-13WIN✓+$1
2022W14MIA @ LACMIAB-3.017-23LOSS✗-$1
2022W14CAR @ SEASEAB-3.530-24LOSS✗-$1
2022W14TB @ SFSFB-3.57-35WIN✓+$1
2022W14KC @ DENKCS-8.534-28WIN✗+$1
2022W14JAX @ TENTENB-3.036-22LOSS✗-$1
2022W14MIN @ DETMIN ▲B+2.523-34LOSS✗-$1
2022W14CLE @ CINCINB-4.510-23WIN✓+$1
2022W14PHI @ NYGPHIA+-7.548-22WIN✓+$1
2022W14NYJ @ BUFBUFA+-10.012-20WIN✗+$1
2022W14BAL @ PITBAL ▲C+1.516-14WIN✓+$1
2022W14HOU @ DALDALS-17.023-27WIN✗+$1
2022W14LV @ LALVB-6.516-17LOSS✗-$1
2022W13NO @ TBTBB-3.516-17WIN✗+$1
2022W13IND @ DALDALA+-11.019-54WIN✓+$1
2022W13KC @ CINKCB-2.524-27LOSS✗-$1
2022W13LAC @ LVLVB-2.520-27WIN✓+$1
2022W13MIA @ SFSFC-4.517-33WIN✓+$1
2022W13SEA @ LASEAB-7.027-23WIN✗+$1
2022W13WAS @ NYGWASC-2.520-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W13PIT @ ATLATL ▲C+1.019-16LOSS✗-$1
2022W13GB @ CHIGBB-4.028-19WIN✓+$1
2022W13TEN @ PHIPHIB-5.010-35WIN✓+$1
2022W13NYJ @ MINMINB-3.022-27WIN✓+$1
2022W13CLE @ HOUCLEB-7.527-14WIN✓+$1
PAGE 18 OF 32
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64%
65%
65%
67%
73%
65%
C67%59%53%57%55%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
12-2
9-7
13-3
11-5
8-8
12-3
8-5
11-5
12-4
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
13-3
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
10-6