Skip to content
NOPUNT
DashboardPicksResultsRankingsTeamsPlayers
GO PRO
NOPUNT

Every NFL pick on the record. We publish before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

PICKS

Latest PicksTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason Review

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProMethodologyData ExportsAPI Docs

Picks return in September.

EXPLORE THE RECORD
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only — no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
PrivacyTermsAPI

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
1048-516
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025
1048-516
6 SEASONS · 1,564 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
67.0%
ACCURACY
+$525
PROFIT
+29.1%
DISAGREE ROI
52.4%
ATS RATE
W5
STREAK
W13
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
82.5%
A+
72.0%
A
71.8%
B
66.7%
C
59.7%

ATS BY TIER

S
47.8%
A+
47.9%
A
49.4%
B
52.8%
C
56.1%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
57.0%
MID (3.5-7)
68.6%
BIG (7.5+)
80.9%
CLOSE (0-3): 340-257 · MID (3.5-7): 412-189 · BIG (7.5+): 296-70

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
51.6%
148-139 (287 underdog picks)

MODEL CONSENSUS

UNANIMOUS
69.5%
SPLIT (2-1)
59.7%
UNANIMOUS: 808-354 · SPLIT: 240-162

HOME / AWAY

HOME
68.0%
AWAY
65.7%
HOME: 592-278 · AWAY: 456-238

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.5%
UNDERDOG
51.6%
FAV: 900-377 · DOG: 148-139

SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1564
CORRECT
1048
DISAGREE PLAYS
287
DISAGREE WINS
148
ATS RECORD
803-729-32
ATS RATE
52.4%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.9%
2021
65.6%
2022
64.5%
2023
64.7%
2024
70.3%
2025
69.0%
2020: 163-77 · 2021: 168-88 · 2022: 165-91 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-80 · 2025: 187-84

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 52.4% — 0.0 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
52.4%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S75%67%91%75%91%88%
A+74%74%66%71%74%73%
A78%85%90%50%71%71%
B

DISAGREE PROFIT CURVE

CUMULATIVE P/L ON VEGAS-DISAGREE PLAYS · 1U FLAT ($1) STAKES
$0+$50+$83202020212022202320242025

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
10-6
10-5
9-5
8-6
11-3
8-6
11-3
11-3
7-7
12-4
10-5
9-7
11-5
11-5
13-3
2021
9-7
11-5
11-5
12-4
12-2
11-2
9-6
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
8-6
2022
10-6
1-0
7-9
8-8
11-5
9-5
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
10-4
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
14-2
9-5
11-4
5-8
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
9-4
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
12-4
11-4
11-3
11-3
9-4
2025
12-4
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

DISAGREE PLAY PROFIT BY MONTH · 30 MONTHS
+12
SEP
22-10
+18
OCT
38-20
+23
NOV
47-22
+20
DEC
43-22
+10
JAN
13-3
+10
SEP
20-12
+37
OCT
53-19
+9
NOV
34-26
+22
DEC
42-18
+5
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
18-16
+19
OCT
46-27
+9
NOV
34-24
+26
DEC
44-17
+15
JAN
23-7
+17
SEP
33-16
+25
OCT
49-24
+16
NOV
38-20
+18
DEC
48-27
-1
JAN
8-9
+7
SEP
33-27
+32
OCT
46-14
+31
NOV
46-14
+38
DEC
56-17
+0
JAN
8-8
+28
SEP
46-17
+19
OCT
39-19
+30
NOV
50-20
+21
DEC
42-22
+4
JAN
10-6

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$65
82.5% SU
94-20 (114)
A+
+$80
72.0% SU
154-60 (214)
A
+$29
71.8% SU
56-22 (78)
B
+$236
66.7% SU
504-252 (756)
C
+$114
59.7% SU
240-162 (402)

FULL LEDGER

1564 GAMES TRACKED
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2023W1PHI @ NEPHIB-3.525-20WIN✓+$1
2023W1LV @ DENLV ▲C+3.017-16WIN✓+$2
2023W1GB @ CHIGB ▲A++1.038-20WIN✓+$1
2023W1CAR @ ATLATLC-3.510-24WIN✓+$1
2023W1ARI @ WASWASB-7.016-20WIN✗+$1
2023W1SF @ PITSFB-1.530-7WIN✓+$1
2023W1TEN @ NONOB-3.015-16WIN✗+$1
2023W1JAX @ INDJAXB-4.031-21WIN✓+$1
2023W1HOU @ BALBALA-9.59-25WIN✓+$1
2023W1CIN @ CLECINB-1.03-24LOSS✗-$1
2023W1TB @ MINMINC-4.020-17LOSS✗-$1
2023W1DET @ KCKCB-4.021-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W18DET @ GBGBB-5.520-16LOSS✗-$1
2022W18LAC @ DENLAC ▲A++6.028-31LOSS✓-$1
2022W18LA @ SEASEAB-5.516-19WIN✗+$1
2022W18NYG @ PHIPHIB-16.516-22WIN✗+$1
2022W18ARI @ SFSFS-14.013-38WIN✓+$1
2022W18DAL @ WASDALA+-7.56-26LOSS✗-$1
2022W18NE @ BUFBUFA+-8.023-35WIN✓+$1
2022W18BAL @ CINCINA-11.016-27WINP+$1
2022W18HOU @ INDHOU ▲C+3.032-31WIN✓+$2
2022W18CAR @ NONOB-3.510-7LOSS✗-$1
2022W18NYJ @ MIAMIAB-3.56-11WIN✓+$1
2022W18TB @ ATLTB ▲B+6.017-30LOSS✗-$1
2022W18CLE @ PITPITB-2.514-28WIN✓+$1
2022W18MIN @ CHIMINA+-6.529-13WIN✓+$1
2022W18TEN @ JAXJAXA-6.016-20WIN✗+$1
2022W18KC @ LVKCB-9.031-13WIN✓+$1
2022W17PIT @ BALBALC-1.016-13LOSS✗-$1
2022W17LA @ LACLACB-6.510-31WIN✓+$1
2022W17MIN @ GBGBB-3.017-41WIN✓+$1
2022W17SF @ LVSFB-10.037-34WIN✗+$1
2022W17NYJ @ SEASEA ▲B+1.06-23WIN✓+$1
2022W17CLE @ WASCLE ▲C+1.024-10WIN✓+$1
2022W17DEN @ KCKCS-13.524-27WIN✗+$1
2022W17CHI @ DETDETA+-4.510-41WIN✓+$1
2022W17ARI @ ATLATLB-7.019-20WIN✗+$1
2022W17JAX @ HOUJAXB-3.531-3WIN✓+$1
2022W17MIA @ NENEB-3.021-23WIN✗+$1
2022W17IND @ NYGNYGB-5.510-38WIN✓+$1
2022W17NO @ PHIPHIB-5.520-10LOSS✗-$1
2022W17CAR @ TBTBB-3.524-30WIN✓+$1
2022W17DAL @ TENDALA+-14.027-13WINP+$1
2022W16LAC @ INDLACB-3.520-3WIN✓+$1
2022W16TB @ ARITBB-7.519-16WIN✗+$1
2022W16DEN @ LALA ▲C+3.014-51WIN✓+$2
2022W16GB @ MIAGB ▲B+3.526-20WIN✓+$2
2022W16LV @ PITLV ▲C+2.510-13LOSS✗-$1
2022W16PHI @ DALDALB-4.034-40WIN✓+$1
2022W16WAS @ SFSFA-6.520-37WIN✓+$1
PAGE 17 OF 32
← PREVNEXT →
Weekly Picks→How We Pick→Season Review→Model Edge (CLV)→
SEEN ENOUGH?
Every pick on this page was published before kickoff. Pro gets you all 16 weekly picks with confidence tiers.
GO PROSEASON REVIEW →
OR GET THE FREE PICK EVERY WEEK
64%
65%
65%
67%
73%
65%
C67%59%53%57%55%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
12-2
9-7
13-3
11-5
8-8
12-3
8-5
11-5
12-4
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
13-3
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
10-6