Skip to content
NOPUNT
DashboardPicksThe EdgeResultsRankingsTeamsPlayers
GO PRO
NOPUNT

Every NFL pick on the record. We publish before kickoff. We track every loss. The receipts are all here.

PICKS

Latest PicksThe EdgeTrack RecordTeamsCompareStandingsPower RankingsPlayoff Odds2026 Projections2026 Game Predictions

ANALYTICS

FantasyDefenseCoachingGame TotalsPlayer PropsModel EdgeStat LeadersSGP BuilderSchedule StrengthSeason OutlookSeason AwardsSeason Review

LEARN

NFL SpreadsBetting OddsATS ExplainedEPA in FootballStats GlossaryAbout

MORE

Go ProPerformancePick LedgerMethodologyModel HonestyData ExportsAPI Docs

Picks return in September.

EXPLORE THE RECORD
© 2026 NoPunt. Not a sportsbook. Not financial advice. For entertainment only — no guaranteed outcomes. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
PrivacyTermsAPI

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
1070-545
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025
1070-545
6 SEASONS · 1,615 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
66.5%
ACCURACY
+$102
PROFIT
51.5%
ATS RATE
W1
STREAK
W12
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
82.8%
A+
75.1%
A
68.0%
B
65.9%
C
58.3%

ATS BY TIER

S
48.3%
A+
51.3%
A
45.0%
B
52.0%
C
52.7%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

ALL-TIME SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1615
CORRECT
1070
ATS RECORD
814-768-33
ATS RATE
51.5%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 51.5% — -0.9 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
51.5%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

1615 GAMES TRACKED
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2022W13WAS @ NYGWASB-2.520-20LOSS✗+$0
2022W13TEN @ PHIPHIB-5.010-35WIN✓+$0
2022W13NYJ @ MINMINB-3.022-27WIN✓+$1
2022W13CLE @ HOUCLEB-7.527-14WIN✓+$0
2022W13JAX @ DETDETB-1.014-40WIN✓+$1
2022W13GB @ CHIGBB-4.028-19WIN✓+$1
2022W13BUF @ NEBUFB-3.524-10WIN✓+$1
2022W12PIT @ INDINDC-2.524-17LOSS✗-$1
2022W12GB @ PHIPHIB-6.533-40WIN✓+$0
2022W12NO @ SFSFB-9.50-13WIN✓+$0
2022W12LA @ KCKCA+-16.510-26WIN✗+$0
2022W12LV @ SEASEAB-4.040-34LOSS✗-$1
2022W12LAC @ ARILACB-2.525-24WIN✗+$1
2022W12HOU @ MIAMIAS-14.015-30WIN✓+$0
2022W12ATL @ WASWASB-3.513-19WIN✓+$1
2022W12CHI @ NYJNYJC-8.510-31WIN✓+$0
2022W12TB @ CLETBB-3.017-23LOSS✗-$1
2022W12BAL @ JAXBALB-3.527-28LOSS✗-$1
2022W12DEN @ CARDENC-1.010-23LOSS✗-$1
2022W12CIN @ TENTENB+1.020-16LOSS✗-$1
2022W12NE @ MINNEB+2.526-33LOSS✗-$1
2022W12NYG @ DALDALA+-10.520-28WIN✗+$0
2022W12BUF @ DETBUFB-10.028-25WIN✗+$0
2022W11SF @ ARISFB-10.038-10WIN✓+$0
2022W11KC @ LACKCB-5.530-27WIN✗+$0
2022W11CIN @ PITCINC-3.537-30WIN✓+$1
2022W11DAL @ MINMINC+1.540-3LOSS✗-$1
2022W11LV @ DENDENC-2.522-16LOSS✗-$1
2022W11CAR @ BALBALA+-13.03-13WIN✗+$0
2022W11CLE @ BUFBUFB-7.523-31WIN✓+$0
2022W11LA @ NONOC-2.520-27WIN✓+$1
2022W11WAS @ HOUWASB-3.023-10WIN✓+$1
2022W11PHI @ INDPHIB-6.517-16WIN✗+$0
2022W11CHI @ ATLATLB-3.024-27WINP+$1
2022W11DET @ NYGNYGB-3.031-18LOSS✗-$1
2022W11NYJ @ NENEB-3.53-10WIN✓+$1
2022W11TEN @ GBTENB+3.027-17WIN✓+$2
2022W10WAS @ PHIPHIA+-11.032-21LOSS✗-$1
2022W10LAC @ SFLACC+8.516-22LOSS✓-$1
2022W10DAL @ GBDALB-3.528-31LOSS✗-$1
2022W10ARI @ LALAB-3.527-17LOSS✗-$1
2022W10IND @ LVLVC-4.525-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W10DEN @ TENTENB-2.510-17WIN✓+$1
2022W10JAX @ KCKCA+-10.017-27WINP+$0
2022W10CLE @ MIAMIAB-3.017-39WIN✓+$1
2022W10HOU @ NYGNYGB-5.516-24WIN✓+$0
2022W10MIN @ BUFBUFC-6.533-30LOSS✗-$1
2022W10NO @ PITNOB+1.010-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W10DET @ CHIDETC+3.031-30WIN✓+$2
2022W10SEA @ TBSEAC+2.516-21LOSS✗-$1
PAGE 19 OF 33
← PREVNEXT →
Weekly Picks→How We Pick→Season Review→Model Edge (CLV)→
SEEN ENOUGH?
Every pick on this page was published before kickoff. Pro unlocks the Edge: the games the model flags as bets.
GO PROSEASON REVIEW →
OR GET THE FREE PICK EVERY WEEK
66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7