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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
1048-516
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025
1048-516
6 SEASONS · 1,564 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
67.0%
ACCURACY
+$525
PROFIT
+29.1%
DISAGREE ROI
52.4%
ATS RATE
W5
STREAK
W13
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
82.5%
A+
72.0%
A
71.8%
B
66.7%
C
59.7%

ATS BY TIER

S
47.8%
A+
47.9%
A
49.4%
B
52.8%
C
56.1%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
57.0%
MID (3.5-7)
68.6%
BIG (7.5+)
80.9%
CLOSE (0-3): 340-257 · MID (3.5-7): 412-189 · BIG (7.5+): 296-70

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
51.6%
148-139 (287 underdog picks)

MODEL CONSENSUS

UNANIMOUS
69.5%
SPLIT (2-1)
59.7%
UNANIMOUS: 808-354 · SPLIT: 240-162

HOME / AWAY

HOME
68.0%
AWAY
65.7%
HOME: 592-278 · AWAY: 456-238

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.5%
UNDERDOG
51.6%
FAV: 900-377 · DOG: 148-139

SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1564
CORRECT
1048
DISAGREE PLAYS
287
DISAGREE WINS
148
ATS RECORD
803-729-32
ATS RATE
52.4%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.9%
2021
65.6%
2022
64.5%
2023
64.7%
2024
70.3%
2025
69.0%
2020: 163-77 · 2021: 168-88 · 2022: 165-91 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-80 · 2025: 187-84

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 52.4% — 0.0 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
52.4%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S75%67%91%75%91%88%
A+74%74%66%71%74%73%
A78%85%90%50%71%71%
B

DISAGREE PROFIT CURVE

CUMULATIVE P/L ON VEGAS-DISAGREE PLAYS · 1U FLAT ($1) STAKES
$0+$50+$83202020212022202320242025

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
10-6
10-5
9-5
8-6
11-3
8-6
11-3
11-3
7-7
12-4
10-5
9-7
11-5
11-5
13-3
2021
9-7
11-5
11-5
12-4
12-2
11-2
9-6
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
8-6
2022
10-6
1-0
7-9
8-8
11-5
9-5
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
10-4
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
14-2
9-5
11-4
5-8
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
9-4
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
12-4
11-4
11-3
11-3
9-4
2025
12-4
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

DISAGREE PLAY PROFIT BY MONTH · 30 MONTHS
+12
SEP
22-10
+18
OCT
38-20
+23
NOV
47-22
+20
DEC
43-22
+10
JAN
13-3
+10
SEP
20-12
+37
OCT
53-19
+9
NOV
34-26
+22
DEC
42-18
+5
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
18-16
+19
OCT
46-27
+9
NOV
34-24
+26
DEC
44-17
+15
JAN
23-7
+17
SEP
33-16
+25
OCT
49-24
+16
NOV
38-20
+18
DEC
48-27
-1
JAN
8-9
+7
SEP
33-27
+32
OCT
46-14
+31
NOV
46-14
+38
DEC
56-17
+0
JAN
8-8
+28
SEP
46-17
+19
OCT
39-19
+30
NOV
50-20
+21
DEC
42-22
+4
JAN
10-6

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$65
82.5% SU
94-20 (114)
A+
+$80
72.0% SU
154-60 (214)
A
+$29
71.8% SU
56-22 (78)
B
+$236
66.7% SU
504-252 (756)
C
+$114
59.7% SU
240-162 (402)

FULL LEDGER

1564 GAMES TRACKED
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2020W13DET @ CHICHIB-3.034-30LOSS✗-$1
2020W13NO @ ATLNOB-2.521-16WIN✓+$1
2020W13JAX @ MINMINA+-10.524-27WIN✗+$1
2020W12BAL @ PITPITB-10.514-19WIN✗+$1
2020W12SEA @ PHISEAC-6.523-17WIN✗+$1
2020W12CHI @ GBGBA+-7.525-41WIN✓+$1
2020W12KC @ TBKCB-3.527-24WIN✗+$1
2020W12SF @ LALAA+-5.023-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W12NO @ DENNOB-17.031-3WIN✓+$1
2020W12LV @ ATLLVC-3.56-43LOSS✗-$1
2020W12CLE @ JAXCLEA+-7.527-25WIN✗+$1
2020W12LAC @ BUFBUFA-4.517-27WIN✓+$1
2020W12CAR @ MINMINA-3.027-28WIN✗+$1
2020W12NYG @ CINNYGB-6.519-17WIN✗+$1
2020W12TEN @ INDINDB-3.045-26LOSS✗-$1
2020W12MIA @ NYJMIAB-7.520-3WIN✓+$1
2020W12ARI @ NENE ▲C+1.017-20WIN✓+$1
2020W12WAS @ DALDALB-2.541-16LOSS✗-$1
2020W12HOU @ DETHOUB-3.041-25WIN✓+$1
2020W11LA @ TBTBC-4.027-24LOSS✗-$1
2020W11KC @ LVKCC-7.535-31WIN✗+$1
2020W11DAL @ MINMINA+-7.031-28LOSS✗-$1
2020W11GB @ INDGB ▲C+1.531-34LOSS✗-$1
2020W11MIA @ DENMIAB-4.013-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W11NYJ @ LACLACB-10.028-34WIN✗+$1
2020W11PIT @ JAXPITS-11.027-3WIN✓+$1
2020W11DET @ CARDETC-3.00-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W11NE @ HOUHOU ▲C+2.520-27WIN✓+$1
2020W11ATL @ NONOC-3.59-24WIN✓+$1
2020W11CIN @ WASCIN ▲C+2.09-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W11TEN @ BALBALB-6.030-24LOSS✗-$1
2020W11PHI @ CLECLEB-2.517-22WIN✓+$1
2020W11ARI @ SEASEAC-3.021-28WIN✓+$1
2020W10MIN @ CHIMINC-3.519-13WIN✓+$1
2020W10BAL @ NEBALB-7.017-23LOSS✗-$1
2020W10SEA @ LALAC-3.016-23WIN✓+$1
2020W10CIN @ PITPITS-6.510-36WIN✓+$1
2020W10SF @ NONOA-9.513-27WIN✓+$1
2020W10BUF @ ARIARIC-3.030-32WIN✗+$1
2020W10DEN @ LVLVB-3.512-37WIN✓+$1
2020W10LAC @ MIAMIAB-1.021-29WIN✓+$1
2020W10PHI @ NYGPHIB-4.517-27LOSS✗-$1
2020W10HOU @ CLECLEC-4.57-10WIN✗+$1
2020W10JAX @ GBGBS-13.520-24WIN✗+$1
2020W10TB @ CARTBB-6.046-23WIN✓+$1
2020W10WAS @ DETDETB-2.527-30WIN✓+$1
2020W10IND @ TENTEN ▲B+1.034-17LOSS✗-$1
2020W9NE @ NYJNEC-9.530-27WIN✗+$1
2020W9NO @ TBTBC-3.038-3LOSS✗-$1
2020W9PIT @ DALPITA+-14.024-19WIN✗+$1
PAGE 29 OF 32
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64%
65%
65%
67%
73%
65%
C67%59%53%57%55%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
12-2
9-7
13-3
11-5
8-8
12-3
8-5
11-5
12-4
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
13-3
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
10-6