ACCURACY BY TIER

A+

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

NOPUNT

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ACCURACY BY TIER

A+

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

172-84

PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2020 SEASON

172-84

2020 SEASON · 256 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC

67.5%

ACCURACY

+$12

PROFIT

45.3%

ATS RATE

STREAK

W11

BEST STREAK

◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

80.0%

A+

72.5%

100.0%

65.8%

62.8%

ATS BY TIER

46.7%

A+

52.5%

25.0%

43.2%

45.3%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)

56.1%

MID (3.5-7)

67.4%

BIG (7.5+)

80.7%

CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT

49.2%

145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS

68.8%

SPLIT (2-1)

58.3%

UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME

67.6%

AWAY

64.6%

HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE

70.1%

UNDERDOG

49.2%

FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2020 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES

256

CORRECT

172

ATS RECORD

116-140

ATS RATE

45.3%

SEASON TREND

2020

67.2%

2021

62.5%

2022

65.7%

2023

64.7%

2024

69.5%

2025

68.0%

2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 45.3% — -7.1 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.

NOPUNT

45.3%

SHARP

55.0%

BREAK-EVEN

52.4%

AVERAGE

52.0%

COIN FLIP

50.0%

Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS

TIER	20	21	22	23	24	25
S	80%	69%	90%	63%	86%	96%
A+	73%	76%	76%	76%	83%	70%
A	100%	25%	45%	58%	78%	81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025

12-4

13-3

9-7

11-4

9-5

7-7

11-3

7-7

11-3

6-8

12-4

10-5

9-7

10-6

11-5

13-3

2021

7-9

11-5

12-4

11-5

12-4

10-4

11-2

7-8

8-6

7-7

8-7

9-6

2022

10-6

11-5

7-9

10-6

8-6

9-5

9-6

10-3

5-9

11-3

9-7

2023

10-6

11-5

13-3

9-5

11-4

6-7

11-5

11-3

8-6

11-5

2024

10-6

8-8

7-9

9-5

11-3

13-2

11-5

11-4

11-3

10-4

9-4

2025

11-5

13-3

11-5

10-6

7-7

8-7

13-2

10-3

9-5

10-4

14-1

10-4

75%+

60-74%

50-59%

35-49%

<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS

+7

SEP

34-13

+2

OCT

38-20

+0

NOV

45-24

-1

DEC

42-23

+4

JAN

13-3

+0

SEP

30-18

+9

OCT

49-23

-1

NOV

34-25

-6

DEC

38-22

-6

JAN

19-13

+5

SEP

28-20

+4

OCT

46-27

-4

NOV

35-23

+13

DEC

46-14

+5

JAN

23-7

+7

SEP

33-16

+6

OCT

49-24

+2

NOV

38-20

-1

DEC

48-27

-3

JAN

8-9

-4

SEP

34-29

+14

OCT

45-15

+12

NOV

45-15

+18

DEC

57-16

-4

JAN

8-8

+11

SEP

45-18

+4

OCT

39-19

+11

NOV

50-20

+3

DEC

42-22

-3

JAN

9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES

% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.

+$0

83.7% SU

72-14 (86)

A+

-$2

75.1% SU

151-50 (201)

-$2

68.0% SU

68-32 (100)

+$57

66.3% SU

550-280 (830)

+$49

58.3% SU

229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

256 OF 1615 GAMES

SEASONTIEROUTCOME

Season	Week	Matchup	Pick	Tier	Spread	Score	SU	ATS	ML P/L
2020	W8	ATL @ CAR	CAR	C	-1.5	25-17	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W7	CHI @ LA	LA	B	-6.5	10-24	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W7	SEA @ ARI	ARI	C	+3.5	34-37	WIN	✓	+$2
2020	W7	SF @ NE	SF	C	+3.0	33-6	WIN	✓	+$2
2020	W7	JAX @ LAC	LAC	B	-8.0	29-39	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W7	KC @ DEN	KC	C	-7.0	43-16	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W7	TB @ LV	TB	C	-3.5	45-20	WIN	✓	+$1
2020	W7	DAL @ WAS	DAL	B	-1.0	3-25	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W7	PIT @ TEN	TEN	B	-1.0	27-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W7	GB @ HOU	GB	B	-2.5	35-20	WIN	✓	+$1
2020	W7	CLE @ CIN	CLE	B	-4.5	37-34	WIN	✗	+$1
2020	W7	DET @ ATL	ATL	B	-1.0	23-22	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W7	CAR @ NO	NO	A	-7.0	24-27	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W7	BUF @ NYJ	BUF	C	-9.5	18-10	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W7	NYG @ PHI	PHI	B	-5.0	21-22	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W6	ARI @ DAL	DAL	C	-1.0	38-10	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	KC @ BUF	KC	C	-5.5	26-17	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W6	LA @ SF	LA	B	-2.0	16-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	GB @ TB	GB	B	-3.0	10-38	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	NYJ @ MIA	MIA	B	-9.5	0-24	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W6	ATL @ MIN	MIN	B	-3.5	40-23	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	WAS @ NYG	NYG	C	-2.0	19-20	WIN	✗	+$1
2020	W6	DET @ JAX	JAX	B	+3.0	34-16	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	DEN @ NE	NE	A+	-7.0	18-12	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	BAL @ PHI	BAL	A+	-10.5	30-28	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W6	HOU @ TEN	TEN	A+	-4.0	36-42	WIN	✓	+$1
2020	W6	CIN @ IND	IND	B	-7.5	27-31	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W6	CHI @ CAR	CAR	C	-2.0	23-16	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W6	CLE @ PIT	PIT	B	-3.0	7-38	WIN	✓	+$1
2020	W5	BUF @ TEN	TEN	C	+3.0	16-42	WIN	✓	+$2
2020	W5	LAC @ NO	NO	A	-7.0	27-30	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W5	MIN @ SEA	SEA	B	-6.5	26-27	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W5	NYG @ DAL	DAL	B	-7.5	34-37	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W5	IND @ CLE	IND	C	+1.0	23-32	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W5	MIA @ SF	SF	B	-8.5	43-17	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W5	PHI @ PIT	PIT	C	-7.5	29-38	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W5	CIN @ BAL	BAL	S	-12.5	3-27	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W5	LA @ WAS	LA	S	-7.0	30-10	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W5	LV @ KC	KC	A+	-11.0	40-32	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W5	JAX @ HOU	HOU	B	-6.5	14-30	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W5	ARI @ NYJ	ARI	B	-7.0	30-10	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W5	CAR @ ATL	ATL	C	-2.5	23-16	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W5	TB @ CHI	TB	C	-3.5	19-20	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W4	ATL @ GB	GB	A+	-5.0	16-30	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W4	NE @ KC	KC	B	-7.0	10-26	WIN	✓	+$0
2020	W4	PHI @ SF	SF	B	-8.5	25-20	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W4	IND @ CHI	CHI	C	+3.5	19-11	LOSS	✗	-$1
2020	W4	BUF @ LV	BUF	B	-3.0	30-23	WIN	✓	+$1
2020	W4	NYG @ LA	LA	A+	-13.5	9-17	WIN	✗	+$0
2020	W4	CLE @ DAL	CLE	C	+3.5	49-38	WIN	✓	+$2

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66%

68%

67%

66%

67%

60%

63%

43%

58%

56%

63%

64%

Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.

9-5

10-4

9-7

10-6

11-5

8-8

13-2

8-5

11-5

13-3

13-2

11-5

9-4

6-9

10-6

11-5

12-4

8-8

13-3

10-3

14-2

11-5

13-3

8-8

10-6

10-4

11-5

9-7

10-6

9-7