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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
172-84
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2020 SEASON
172-84
2020 SEASON · 256 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
67.5%
ACCURACY
+$12
PROFIT
45.3%
ATS RATE
W2
STREAK
W11
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
80.0%
A+
72.5%
A
100.0%
B
65.8%
C
62.8%

ATS BY TIER

S
46.7%
A+
52.5%
A
25.0%
B
43.2%
C
45.3%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2020 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
256
CORRECT
172
ATS RECORD
116-140
ATS RATE
45.3%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 45.3% — -7.1 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
45.3%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

256 OF 1615 GAMES
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2020W4BAL @ WASBALS-14.531-17WIN✗+$0
2020W4LAC @ TBTBB-7.531-38WIN✗+$0
2020W4SEA @ MIASEAB-4.531-23WIN✓+$1
2020W4ARI @ CARARIB-3.021-31LOSS✗-$1
2020W4NO @ DETNOA+-3.035-29WIN✓+$1
2020W4JAX @ CINJAXB+1.025-33LOSS✗-$1
2020W4MIN @ HOUMINB+3.531-23WIN✓+$2
2020W4DEN @ NYJDENC+1.037-28WIN✓+$1
2020W3KC @ BALBALB-3.534-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W3GB @ NOGBC+3.537-30WIN✓+$2
2020W3DAL @ SEASEAC-5.531-38WIN✓+$0
2020W3DET @ ARIARIB-4.526-23LOSS✗-$1
2020W3TB @ DENDENC+6.028-10LOSS✗-$1
2020W3NYJ @ INDINDC-12.57-36WIN✓+$0
2020W3CAR @ LACLACB-6.021-16LOSS✗-$1
2020W3CIN @ PHIPHIB-5.523-23LOSS✗+$0
2020W3HOU @ PITPITB-4.021-28WIN✓+$1
2020W3LV @ NENEB-7.020-36WIN✓+$0
2020W3SF @ NYGSFA+-3.036-9WIN✓+$1
2020W3TEN @ MINTENB-3.031-30WIN✗+$1
2020W3WAS @ CLECLEB-7.520-34WIN✓+$0
2020W3LA @ BUFLAC+1.532-35LOSS✗-$1
2020W3CHI @ ATLCHIC+2.530-26WIN✓+$1
2020W3MIA @ JAXJAXC-3.031-13LOSS✗-$1
2020W2NO @ LVNOA+-4.024-34LOSS✗-$1
2020W2NE @ SEANEB+4.030-35LOSS✗-$1
2020W2KC @ LACKCB-8.523-20WIN✗+$0
2020W2BAL @ HOUBALA+-7.533-16WIN✓+$0
2020W2WAS @ ARIARIC-7.515-30WIN✓+$0
2020W2DET @ GBGBA+-7.021-42WIN✓+$0
2020W2DEN @ PITPITC-6.021-26WIN✗+$0
2020W2LA @ PHILAB+2.037-19WIN✓+$1
2020W2MIN @ INDMINB+3.511-28LOSS✗-$1
2020W2ATL @ DALDALC-3.039-40WIN✗+$1
2020W2NYG @ CHICHIB-4.513-17WIN✗+$1
2020W2BUF @ MIABUFB-5.531-28WIN✗+$0
2020W2SF @ NYJSFB-7.031-13WIN✓+$0
2020W2CAR @ TBTBB-7.517-31WIN✓+$0
2020W2JAX @ TENTENB-7.030-33WIN✗+$0
2020W2CIN @ CLECLEB-6.030-35WIN✗+$0
2020W1TEN @ DENTENC-3.016-14WIN✗+$1
2020W1PIT @ NYGPITB-6.026-16WIN✓+$0
2020W1DAL @ LALAB-1.017-20WIN✓+$1
2020W1TB @ NONOA+-4.023-34WIN✓+$1
2020W1ARI @ SFSFA+-7.024-20LOSS✗-$1
2020W1LAC @ CINLACC-2.516-13WIN✓+$1
2020W1SEA @ ATLATLC-1.038-25LOSS✗-$1
2020W1CHI @ DETCHIB+2.527-23WIN✓+$1
2020W1PHI @ WASPHIA+-5.517-27LOSS✗-$1
2020W1GB @ MINGBC+1.043-34WIN✓+$1
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7