ACCURACY BY TIER

A+

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

NOPUNT

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ACCURACY BY TIER

A+

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

178-93

PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2022 SEASON

178-93

2022 SEASON · 271 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC

66.2%

ACCURACY

+$23

PROFIT

47.9%

ATS RATE

STREAK

W12

BEST STREAK

◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

90.0%

A+

76.0%

45.5%

66.9%

57.6%

ATS BY TIER

30.0%

A+

56.5%

27.3%

46.6%

55.4%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)

56.1%

MID (3.5-7)

67.4%

BIG (7.5+)

80.7%

CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT

49.2%

145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS

68.8%

SPLIT (2-1)

58.3%

UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME

67.6%

AWAY

64.6%

HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE

70.1%

UNDERDOG

49.2%

FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2022 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES

271

CORRECT

178

ATS RECORD

125-136-10

ATS RATE

47.9%

SEASON TREND

2020

67.2%

2021

62.5%

2022

65.7%

2023

64.7%

2024

69.5%

2025

68.0%

2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 47.9% — -4.5 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.

NOPUNT

47.9%

SHARP

55.0%

BREAK-EVEN

52.4%

AVERAGE

52.0%

COIN FLIP

50.0%

Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS

TIER	20	21	22	23	24	25
S	80%	69%	90%	63%	86%	96%
A+	73%	76%	76%	76%	83%	70%
A	100%	25%	45%	58%	78%	81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025

12-4

13-3

9-7

11-4

9-5

7-7

11-3

7-7

11-3

6-8

12-4

10-5

9-7

10-6

11-5

13-3

2021

7-9

11-5

12-4

11-5

12-4

10-4

11-2

7-8

8-6

7-7

8-7

9-6

2022

10-6

11-5

7-9

10-6

8-6

9-5

9-6

10-3

5-9

11-3

9-7

2023

10-6

11-5

13-3

9-5

11-4

6-7

11-5

11-3

8-6

11-5

2024

10-6

8-8

7-9

9-5

11-3

13-2

11-5

11-4

11-3

10-4

9-4

2025

11-5

13-3

11-5

10-6

7-7

8-7

13-2

10-3

9-5

10-4

14-1

10-4

75%+

60-74%

50-59%

35-49%

<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS

+7

SEP

34-13

+2

OCT

38-20

+0

NOV

45-24

-1

DEC

42-23

+4

JAN

13-3

+0

SEP

30-18

+9

OCT

49-23

-1

NOV

34-25

-6

DEC

38-22

-6

JAN

19-13

+5

SEP

28-20

+4

OCT

46-27

-4

NOV

35-23

+13

DEC

46-14

+5

JAN

23-7

+7

SEP

33-16

+6

OCT

49-24

+2

NOV

38-20

-1

DEC

48-27

-3

JAN

8-9

-4

SEP

34-29

+14

OCT

45-15

+12

NOV

45-15

+18

DEC

57-16

-4

JAN

8-8

+11

SEP

45-18

+4

OCT

39-19

+11

NOV

50-20

+3

DEC

42-22

-3

JAN

9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES

% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.

+$0

83.7% SU

72-14 (86)

A+

-$2

75.1% SU

151-50 (201)

-$2

68.0% SU

68-32 (100)

+$57

66.3% SU

550-280 (830)

+$49

58.3% SU

229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

271 OF 1615 GAMES

SEASONTIEROUTCOME

Season	Week	Matchup	Pick	Tier	Spread	Score	SU	ATS	ML P/L
2022	W15	TEN @ LAC	LAC	B	-3.0	14-17	WIN	P	+$1
2022	W15	ARI @ DEN	ARI	B	+1.5	15-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W15	NE @ LV	LV	C	-1.0	24-30	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W15	ATL @ NO	NO	B	-5.0	18-21	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W15	PIT @ CAR	CAR	C	-2.5	24-16	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W15	PHI @ CHI	PHI	S	-8.5	25-20	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W15	KC @ HOU	KC	S	-14.5	30-24	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W15	DET @ NYJ	DET	B	+2.0	20-17	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W15	DAL @ JAX	DAL	A+	-4.0	34-40	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W15	MIA @ BUF	BUF	B	-7.0	29-32	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W15	BAL @ CLE	BAL	B	+2.5	3-13	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W15	IND @ MIN	MIN	B	-3.5	36-39	WIN	✗	+$1
2022	W15	SF @ SEA	SF	B	-3.0	21-13	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W14	NE @ ARI	NE	B	-2.0	27-13	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W14	MIA @ LAC	MIA	B	-3.0	17-23	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W14	TB @ SF	SF	B	-3.5	7-35	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W14	CAR @ SEA	SEA	B	-3.5	30-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W14	KC @ DEN	KC	S	-8.5	34-28	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W14	MIN @ DET	MIN	B	+2.5	23-34	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W14	CLE @ CIN	CIN	B	-4.5	10-23	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W14	PHI @ NYG	PHI	A+	-7.5	48-22	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W14	NYJ @ BUF	BUF	A+	-10.0	12-20	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W14	HOU @ DAL	DAL	S	-17.0	23-27	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W14	BAL @ PIT	BAL	C	+1.5	16-14	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W14	JAX @ TEN	TEN	B	-3.0	36-22	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W14	LV @ LA	LV	B	-6.5	16-17	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W13	NO @ TB	TB	B	-3.5	16-17	WIN	✗	+$1
2022	W13	IND @ DAL	DAL	A+	-11.0	19-54	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W13	LAC @ LV	LV	B	-2.5	20-27	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W13	KC @ CIN	KC	B	-2.5	24-27	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W13	SEA @ LA	SEA	B	-7.0	27-23	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W13	MIA @ SF	SF	B	-4.5	17-33	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W13	DEN @ BAL	BAL	A+	-9.5	9-10	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W13	PIT @ ATL	PIT	C	-1.0	19-16	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W13	WAS @ NYG	WAS	B	-2.5	20-20	LOSS	✗	+$0
2022	W13	TEN @ PHI	PHI	B	-5.0	10-35	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W13	NYJ @ MIN	MIN	B	-3.0	22-27	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W13	CLE @ HOU	CLE	B	-7.5	27-14	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W13	JAX @ DET	DET	B	-1.0	14-40	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W13	GB @ CHI	GB	B	-4.0	28-19	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W13	BUF @ NE	BUF	B	-3.5	24-10	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W12	PIT @ IND	IND	C	-2.5	24-17	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W12	GB @ PHI	PHI	B	-6.5	33-40	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W12	NO @ SF	SF	B	-9.5	0-13	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W12	LA @ KC	KC	A+	-16.5	10-26	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W12	LV @ SEA	SEA	B	-4.0	40-34	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W12	LAC @ ARI	LAC	B	-2.5	25-24	WIN	✗	+$1
2022	W12	HOU @ MIA	MIA	S	-14.0	15-30	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W12	ATL @ WAS	WAS	B	-3.5	13-19	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W12	CHI @ NYJ	NYJ	C	-8.5	10-31	WIN	✓	+$0

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66%

68%

67%

66%

67%

60%

63%

43%

58%

56%

63%

64%

Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.

9-5

10-4

9-7

10-6

11-5

8-8

13-2

8-5

11-5

13-3

13-2

11-5

9-4

6-9

10-6

11-5

12-4

8-8

13-3

10-3

14-2

11-5

13-3

8-8

10-6

10-4

11-5

9-7

10-6

9-7