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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
170-102
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2021 SEASON
170-102
2021 SEASON · 272 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
62.7%
ACCURACY
-$5
PROFIT
51.5%
ATS RATE
L3
STREAK
W8
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
68.8%
A+
75.8%
A
25.0%
B
68.4%
C
43.3%

ATS BY TIER

S
43.8%
A+
53.1%
A
25.0%
B
57.2%
C
41.7%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2021 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
272
CORRECT
170
ATS RECORD
138-130-4
ATS RATE
51.5%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 51.5% — -0.9 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
51.5%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

272 OF 1615 GAMES
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2021W12PIT @ CINCINC-3.510-41WIN✓+$1
2021W12NYJ @ HOUHOUC-3.021-14LOSS✗-$1
2021W12TEN @ NENEC-7.513-36WIN✓+$0
2021W12TB @ INDINDB+3.038-31LOSS✗-$1
2021W12BUF @ NOBUFB-7.031-6WIN✓+$0
2021W12LV @ DALDALB-7.036-33LOSS✗-$1
2021W12CHI @ DETCHIB-2.016-14WINP+$1
2021W11NYG @ TBTBA+-11.510-30WIN✓+$0
2021W11PIT @ LACPITB+5.537-41LOSS✓-$1
2021W11DAL @ KCKCC-2.59-19WIN✓+$1
2021W11ARI @ SEAARIB+2.523-13WIN✓+$1
2021W11CIN @ LVLVB+1.032-13LOSS✗-$1
2021W11DET @ CLECLEA+-13.010-13WIN✗+$0
2021W11HOU @ TENTENS-10.522-13LOSS✗-$1
2021W11SF @ JAXSFB-6.530-10WIN✓+$0
2021W11GB @ MINGBB-1.031-34LOSS✗-$1
2021W11NO @ PHINOB+2.529-40LOSS✗-$1
2021W11MIA @ NYJMIAB-3.524-17WIN✓+$1
2021W11WAS @ CARCARB-3.527-21LOSS✗-$1
2021W11IND @ BUFBUFB-7.541-15LOSS✗-$1
2021W11BAL @ CHIBALB-5.016-13WIN✗+$0
2021W11NE @ ATLNEB-7.025-0WIN✓+$0
2021W10LA @ SFLAB-3.510-31LOSS✗-$1
2021W10KC @ LVKCB-2.541-14WIN✓+$1
2021W10PHI @ DENDENB-1.030-13LOSS✗-$1
2021W10SEA @ GBGBA+-3.00-17WIN✓+$1
2021W10CAR @ ARIARIA+-7.034-10LOSS✗-$1
2021W10MIN @ LACLACB-3.027-20LOSS✗-$1
2021W10BUF @ NYJBUFS-13.045-17WIN✓+$0
2021W10CLE @ NENEB-2.57-45WIN✓+$1
2021W10NO @ TENTENC-3.021-23WIN✗+$1
2021W10ATL @ DALDALB-8.03-43WIN✓+$0
2021W10TB @ WASTBA-10.019-29LOSS✗-$1
2021W10JAX @ INDINDA+-10.517-23WIN✗+$0
2021W10DET @ PITPITS-9.016-16LOSS✗+$0
2021W10BAL @ MIABALA+-8.510-22LOSS✗-$1
2021W9CHI @ PITPITB-7.027-29WIN✗+$0
2021W9TEN @ LALAC-7.028-16LOSS✗-$1
2021W9ARI @ SFARIB+5.531-17WIN✓+$2
2021W9GB @ KCGBB+7.07-13LOSS✓-$1
2021W9LAC @ PHILACB-1.027-24WIN✓+$1
2021W9LV @ NYGLVB-3.016-23LOSS✗-$1
2021W9CLE @ CINCLEC+2.541-16WIN✓+$1
2021W9ATL @ NONOA+-7.027-25LOSS✗-$1
2021W9MIN @ BALBALB-7.531-34WIN✗+$0
2021W9DEN @ DALDALA-10.530-16LOSS✗-$1
2021W9NE @ CARNEB-3.524-6WIN✓+$1
2021W9HOU @ MIAMIAB-4.09-17WIN✓+$1
2021W9BUF @ JAXBUFS-14.56-9LOSS✗-$1
2021W9NYJ @ INDINDA+-10.530-45WIN✓+$0
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7