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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
185-87
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2025 SEASON
185-87
2025 SEASON · 272 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
68.3%
ACCURACY
+$26
PROFIT
53.5%
ATS RATE
W1
STREAK
W11
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
95.8%
A+
70.3%
A
80.6%
B
60.0%
C
64.3%

ATS BY TIER

S
58.3%
A+
40.5%
A
51.6%
B
50.5%
C
64.3%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2025 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
272
CORRECT
185
ATS RECORD
145-126-1
ATS RATE
53.5%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 53.5% — 1.1 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
53.5%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

272 OF 1615 GAMES
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2025W5MIA @ CARCARB+1.524-27WIN✓+$1
2025W5DEN @ PHIPHIB-3.521-17LOSS✗-$1
2025W5NYG @ NONOB-1.514-26WIN✓+$1
2025W5DAL @ NYJDALC+1.537-22WIN✓+$1
2025W5HOU @ BALBALB+2.544-10LOSS✗-$1
2025W5LV @ INDINDA-7.06-40WIN✓+$0
2025W5MIN @ CLEMINC-3.521-17WIN✓+$1
2025W5SF @ LALAA-8.526-23LOSS✗-$1
2025W4CIN @ DENDENB-7.53-28WIN✓+$0
2025W4NYJ @ MIAMIAB-2.521-27WIN✓+$1
2025W4GB @ DALGBB-7.040-40LOSS✗+$0
2025W4BAL @ KCKCC+2.520-37WIN✓+$1
2025W4CHI @ LVLVC-1.525-24LOSS✗-$1
2025W4JAX @ SFSFC-3.526-21LOSS✗-$1
2025W4IND @ LALAB-3.520-27WIN✓+$1
2025W4NO @ BUFBUFS-15.519-31WIN✗+$0
2025W4CAR @ NENEC-5.513-42WIN✓+$0
2025W4WAS @ ATLWASB+2.527-34LOSS✗-$1
2025W4PHI @ TBTBC+3.531-25LOSS✗-$1
2025W4LAC @ NYGLACA+-6.018-21LOSS✗-$1
2025W4TEN @ HOUHOUA-7.50-26WIN✓+$0
2025W4CLE @ DETDETS-10.010-34WIN✓+$0
2025W4MIN @ PITPITC+2.521-24WIN✓+$1
2025W4SEA @ ARISEAC-1.523-20WIN✓+$1
2025W3DET @ BALDETC+4.538-30WIN✓+$2
2025W3KC @ NYGKCA-6.022-9WIN✓+$0
2025W3ARI @ SFARIC+1.515-16LOSS✓-$1
2025W3DAL @ CHIDALB-1.514-31LOSS✗-$1
2025W3NO @ SEASEAA-7.513-44WIN✓+$0
2025W3DEN @ LACLACC-2.520-23WIN✓+$1
2025W3LV @ WASWASC-2.524-41WIN✓+$1
2025W3CIN @ MINCINB+3.010-48LOSS✗-$1
2025W3GB @ CLEGBA+-8.510-13LOSS✗-$1
2025W3NYJ @ TBTBS-6.527-29WIN✗+$0
2025W3IND @ TENINDA+-6.041-20WIN✓+$0
2025W3ATL @ CARATLB-5.50-30LOSS✗-$1
2025W3HOU @ JAXJAXB-1.510-17WIN✓+$1
2025W3PIT @ NEPITC-1.521-14WIN✓+$1
2025W3LA @ PHIPHIC-3.526-33WIN✓+$1
2025W3MIA @ BUFBUFS-12.521-31WIN✗+$0
2025W2LAC @ LVLACB-3.520-9WIN✓+$1
2025W2TB @ HOUTBB+2.520-19WIN✓+$1
2025W2ATL @ MINMINB-3.522-6LOSS✗-$1
2025W2PHI @ KCPHIB-1.520-17WIN✓+$1
2025W2DEN @ INDDENC-2.528-29LOSS✗-$1
2025W2CAR @ ARIARIA-7.022-27WIN✗+$0
2025W2NYG @ DALDALB-4.537-40WIN✗+$1
2025W2NE @ MIAMIAB-1.533-27LOSS✗-$1
2025W2SF @ NOSFB-3.026-21WIN✓+$1
2025W2SEA @ PITSEAC+3.531-17WIN✓+$2
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7