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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
178-93
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · 2022 SEASON
178-93
2022 SEASON · 271 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
66.2%
ACCURACY
+$23
PROFIT
47.9%
ATS RATE
L2
STREAK
W12
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
90.0%
A+
76.0%
A
45.5%
B
66.9%
C
57.6%

ATS BY TIER

S
30.0%
A+
56.5%
A
27.3%
B
46.6%
C
55.4%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
56.1%
MID (3.5-7)
67.4%
BIG (7.5+)
80.7%
CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
49.2%
145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS
68.8%
SPLIT (2-1)
58.3%
UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME
67.6%
AWAY
64.6%
HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.1%
UNDERDOG
49.2%
FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

2022 SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
271
CORRECT
178
ATS RECORD
125-136-10
ATS RATE
47.9%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.2%
2021
62.5%
2022
65.7%
2023
64.7%
2024
69.5%
2025
68.0%
2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 47.9% — -4.5 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
47.9%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S80%69%90%63%86%96%
A+73%76%76%76%83%70%
A100%25%45%58%78%81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
13-3
9-7
11-4
9-5
7-7
11-3
7-7
11-3
11-3
6-8
12-4
10-5
9-7
10-6
11-5
13-3
2021
7-9
11-5
12-4
11-5
12-4
10-4
11-2
7-8
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
2022
10-6
11-5
7-9
10-6
10-6
8-6
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
11-3
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
13-3
9-5
11-4
6-7
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
10-6
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
11-5
11-4
11-3
10-4
9-4
2025
11-5
13-3
11-5
10-6
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS
+7
SEP
34-13
+2
OCT
38-20
+0
NOV
45-24
-1
DEC
42-23
+4
JAN
13-3
+0
SEP
30-18
+9
OCT
49-23
-1
NOV
34-25
-6
DEC
38-22
-6
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
28-20
+4
OCT
46-27
-4
NOV
35-23
+13
DEC
46-14
+5
JAN
23-7
+7
SEP
33-16
+6
OCT
49-24
+2
NOV
38-20
-1
DEC
48-27
-3
JAN
8-9
-4
SEP
34-29
+14
OCT
45-15
+12
NOV
45-15
+18
DEC
57-16
-4
JAN
8-8
+11
SEP
45-18
+4
OCT
39-19
+11
NOV
50-20
+3
DEC
42-22
-3
JAN
9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$0
83.7% SU
72-14 (86)
A+
-$2
75.1% SU
151-50 (201)
A
-$2
68.0% SU
68-32 (100)
B
+$57
66.3% SU
550-280 (830)
C
+$49
58.3% SU
229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

271 OF 1615 GAMES
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2022W5ATL @ TBTBB-10.515-21WIN✗+$0
2022W5HOU @ JAXJAXB-7.013-6LOSS✗-$1
2022W5DET @ NENEB-3.00-29WIN✓+$1
2022W5TEN @ WASTENB-1.021-17WIN✓+$1
2022W5LAC @ CLECLEC+1.030-28LOSS✗-$1
2022W5NYG @ GBGBA+-8.527-22LOSS✗-$1
2022W5IND @ DENINDC+3.512-9WIN✓+$2
2022W4LA @ SFSFC-1.09-24WIN✓+$1
2022W4KC @ TBTBC-1.041-31LOSS✗-$1
2022W4DEN @ LVDENC+2.523-32LOSS✗-$1
2022W4NE @ GBGBB-10.024-27WIN✗+$0
2022W4ARI @ CARARIB+1.026-16WIN✓+$1
2022W4BUF @ BALBUFB-3.023-20WINP+$1
2022W4JAX @ PHIPHIB-6.521-29WIN✓+$0
2022W4TEN @ INDTENC+4.524-17WIN✓+$2
2022W4SEA @ DETSEAC+3.048-45WIN✓+$2
2022W4LAC @ HOULACB-5.534-24WIN✓+$0
2022W4WAS @ DALDALB-3.010-25WIN✓+$1
2022W4CHI @ NYGCHIB+3.012-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W4NYJ @ PITPITB-3.024-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W4CLE @ ATLCLEB-1.020-23LOSS✗-$1
2022W4MIN @ NOMINB-4.028-25WIN✗+$1
2022W4MIA @ CINMIAB+4.015-27LOSS✗-$1
2022W3DAL @ NYGDALA+1.023-16WIN✓+$1
2022W3SF @ DENSFB-1.010-11LOSS✗-$1
2022W3GB @ TBTBB-1.014-12LOSS✗-$1
2022W3LA @ ARILAB-3.520-12WIN✓+$1
2022W3ATL @ SEASEAB-1.027-23LOSS✗-$1
2022W3JAX @ LACLACB-6.538-10LOSS✗-$1
2022W3PHI @ WASPHIB-6.024-8WIN✓+$0
2022W3NO @ CARNOB-2.014-22LOSS✗-$1
2022W3CIN @ NYJCINB-6.527-12WIN✓+$0
2022W3KC @ INDKCA-4.517-20LOSS✗-$1
2022W3LV @ TENTENC+1.522-24WIN✓+$1
2022W3BAL @ NENEB+2.537-26LOSS✗-$1
2022W3HOU @ CHICHIC-3.020-23WINP+$1
2022W3BUF @ MIABUFB-4.019-21LOSS✗-$1
2022W3DET @ MINMINB-6.524-28WIN✗+$0
2022W3PIT @ CLEPITC+4.517-29LOSS✗-$1
2022W2MIN @ PHIPHIB-2.57-24WIN✓+$1
2022W2TEN @ BUFBUFB-10.07-41WIN✓+$0
2022W2CHI @ GBGBB-10.510-27WIN✓+$0
2022W2HOU @ DENDENC-10.59-16WIN✗+$0
2022W2CIN @ DALDALC+7.517-20WIN✓+$3
2022W2ARI @ LVARIC+5.529-23WIN✓+$2
2022W2SEA @ SFSFB-8.57-27WIN✓+$0
2022W2ATL @ LALAB-10.527-31WIN✗+$0
2022W2TB @ NOTBB-2.520-10WIN✓+$1
2022W2NE @ PITPITC+3.017-14LOSSP-$1
2022W2CAR @ NYGCARC-1.016-19LOSS✗-$1
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66%
68%
67%
66%
67%
60%
C63%43%58%56%63%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
9-5
10-4
9-7
10-6
11-5
8-8
13-2
8-5
11-5
13-3
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
14-2
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
9-7
10-6
9-7