ACCURACY BY TIER

A+

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

NOPUNT

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ACCURACY BY TIER

A+

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026

1070-545

PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025

1070-545

6 SEASONS · 1,615 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC

66.5%

ACCURACY

+$102

PROFIT

51.5%

ATS RATE

STREAK

W12

BEST STREAK

◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

82.8%

A+

75.1%

68.0%

65.9%

58.3%

ATS BY TIER

48.3%

A+

51.3%

45.0%

52.0%

52.7%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)

56.1%

MID (3.5-7)

67.4%

BIG (7.5+)

80.7%

CLOSE (0-3): 342-268 · MID (3.5-7): 422-204 · BIG (7.5+): 306-73

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT

49.2%

145-150 (295 underdog picks)

MODEL AGREEMENT

UNANIMOUS

68.8%

SPLIT (2-1)

58.3%

UNANIMOUS: 841-381 · SPLIT: 229-164

HOME / AWAY

HOME

67.6%

AWAY

64.6%

HOME: 611-293 · AWAY: 459-252

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE

70.1%

UNDERDOG

49.2%

FAV: 925-395 · DOG: 145-150

ALL-TIME SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES

1615

CORRECT

1070

ATS RECORD

814-768-33

ATS RATE

51.5%

SEASON TREND

2020

67.2%

2021

62.5%

2022

65.7%

2023

64.7%

2024

69.5%

2025

68.0%

2020: 172-84 · 2021: 170-102 · 2022: 178-93 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-83 · 2025: 185-87

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 51.5% — -0.9 points below the -110 break-even, in public, every week.

NOPUNT

51.5%

SHARP

55.0%

BREAK-EVEN

52.4%

AVERAGE

52.0%

COIN FLIP

50.0%

Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS

TIER	20	21	22	23	24	25
S	80%	69%	90%	63%	86%	96%
A+	73%	76%	76%	76%	83%	70%
A	100%	25%	45%	58%	78%	81%
B

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025

12-4

13-3

9-7

11-4

9-5

7-7

11-3

7-7

11-3

6-8

12-4

10-5

9-7

10-6

11-5

13-3

2021

7-9

11-5

12-4

11-5

12-4

10-4

11-2

7-8

8-6

7-7

8-7

9-6

2022

10-6

11-5

7-9

10-6

8-6

9-5

9-6

10-3

5-9

11-3

9-7

2023

10-6

11-5

13-3

9-5

11-4

6-7

11-5

11-3

8-6

11-5

2024

10-6

8-8

7-9

9-5

11-3

13-2

11-5

11-4

11-3

10-4

9-4

2025

11-5

13-3

11-5

10-6

7-7

8-7

13-2

10-3

9-5

10-4

14-1

10-4

75%+

60-74%

50-59%

35-49%

<35%

MONTHLY P/L

MONEYLINE P/L BY MONTH · 1U FLAT ($1) · 30 MONTHS

+7

SEP

34-13

+2

OCT

38-20

+0

NOV

45-24

-1

DEC

42-23

+4

JAN

13-3

+0

SEP

30-18

+9

OCT

49-23

-1

NOV

34-25

-6

DEC

38-22

-6

JAN

19-13

+5

SEP

28-20

+4

OCT

46-27

-4

NOV

35-23

+13

DEC

46-14

+5

JAN

23-7

+7

SEP

33-16

+6

OCT

49-24

+2

NOV

38-20

-1

DEC

48-27

-3

JAN

8-9

-4

SEP

34-29

+14

OCT

45-15

+12

NOV

45-15

+18

DEC

57-16

-4

JAN

8-8

+11

SEP

45-18

+4

OCT

39-19

+11

NOV

50-20

+3

DEC

42-22

-3

JAN

9-7

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES

% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.

+$0

83.7% SU

72-14 (86)

A+

-$2

75.1% SU

151-50 (201)

-$2

68.0% SU

68-32 (100)

+$57

66.3% SU

550-280 (830)

+$49

58.3% SU

229-164 (393)

FULL LEDGER

1615 GAMES TRACKED

SEASONTIEROUTCOME

Season	Week	Matchup	Pick	Tier	Spread	Score	SU	ATS	ML P/L
2022	W3	BAL @ NE	NE	B	+2.5	37-26	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W3	HOU @ CHI	CHI	C	-3.0	20-23	WIN	P	+$1
2022	W3	BUF @ MIA	BUF	B	-4.0	19-21	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W3	DET @ MIN	MIN	B	-6.5	24-28	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W3	PIT @ CLE	PIT	C	+4.5	17-29	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W2	MIN @ PHI	PHI	B	-2.5	7-24	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W2	TEN @ BUF	BUF	B	-10.0	7-41	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W2	CHI @ GB	GB	B	-10.5	10-27	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W2	HOU @ DEN	DEN	C	-10.5	9-16	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W2	CIN @ DAL	DAL	C	+7.5	17-20	WIN	✓	+$3
2022	W2	ARI @ LV	ARI	C	+5.5	29-23	WIN	✓	+$2
2022	W2	SEA @ SF	SF	B	-8.5	7-27	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W2	ATL @ LA	LA	B	-10.5	27-31	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W2	TB @ NO	TB	B	-2.5	20-10	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W2	NE @ PIT	PIT	C	+3.0	17-14	LOSS	P	-$1
2022	W2	CAR @ NYG	CAR	C	-1.0	16-19	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W2	WAS @ DET	WAS	B	-1.0	27-36	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W2	IND @ JAX	IND	B	-3.0	0-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W2	NYJ @ CLE	CLE	A	-6.5	31-30	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W2	MIA @ BAL	MIA	B	+3.0	42-38	WIN	✓	+$2
2022	W2	LAC @ KC	KC	B	-4.0	24-27	WIN	✗	+$1
2022	W1	DEN @ SEA	SEA	B	+6.0	16-17	WIN	✓	+$2
2022	W1	TB @ DAL	TB	C	-2.5	19-3	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W1	GB @ MIN	GB	B	+2.5	7-23	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W1	KC @ ARI	KC	B	-6.0	44-21	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W1	NYG @ TEN	TEN	S	-5.5	21-20	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W1	LV @ LAC	LV	C	+3.5	19-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W1	JAX @ WAS	WAS	B	-3.0	22-28	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W1	NE @ MIA	NE	C	+3.0	7-20	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W1	PIT @ CIN	PIT	C	+7.5	23-20	WIN	✓	+$3
2022	W1	CLE @ CAR	CLE	B	+2.5	26-24	WIN	✓	+$1
2022	W1	PHI @ DET	PHI	B	-6.0	38-35	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W1	BAL @ NYJ	BAL	B	-6.5	24-9	WIN	✓	+$0
2022	W1	IND @ HOU	IND	B	-7.0	20-20	LOSS	✗	+$0
2022	W1	SF @ CHI	SF	B	-6.5	10-19	LOSS	✗	-$1
2022	W1	NO @ ATL	NO	B	-6.0	27-26	WIN	✗	+$0
2022	W1	BUF @ LA	BUF	B	-1.0	31-10	WIN	✓	+$1
2021	W18	LAC @ LV	LAC	C	-3.5	32-35	LOSS	✗	-$1
2021	W18	SEA @ ARI	ARI	B	-5.5	38-30	LOSS	✗	-$1
2021	W18	NE @ MIA	NE	C	-6.0	24-33	LOSS	✗	-$1
2021	W18	NO @ ATL	NO	B	-4.5	30-20	WIN	✓	+$1
2021	W18	NYJ @ BUF	BUF	S	-16.0	10-27	WIN	✓	+$0
2021	W18	CAR @ TB	TB	S	-11.0	17-41	WIN	✓	+$0
2021	W18	SF @ LA	LA	B	-3.0	27-24	LOSS	✗	-$1
2021	W18	CIN @ CLE	CIN	B	+6.5	16-21	LOSS	✓	-$1
2021	W18	PIT @ BAL	PIT	C	+3.0	16-13	WIN	✓	+$2
2021	W18	GB @ DET	GB	S	-4.0	30-37	LOSS	✗	-$1
2021	W18	IND @ JAX	IND	S	-14.0	11-26	LOSS	✗	-$1
2021	W18	TEN @ HOU	TEN	A+	-10.5	28-25	WIN	✗	+$0
2021	W18	CHI @ MIN	MIN	B	-3.5	17-31	WIN	✓	+$1

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66%

68%

67%

66%

67%

60%

63%

43%

58%

56%

63%

64%

Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.

9-5

10-4

9-7

10-6

11-5

8-8

13-2

8-5

11-5

13-3

13-2

11-5

9-4

6-9

10-6

11-5

12-4

8-8

13-3

10-3

14-2

11-5

13-3

8-8

10-6

10-4

11-5

9-7

10-6

9-7