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ACCURACY BY TIER

S
A+
A
B
C

SEASON SUMMARY

FULL LEDGER

2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
1048-516
PUBLIC RECORD

THE RECEIPTS

EVERY PICK TRACKED · EVERY LOSS SHOWN · THROUGH 2025
1048-516
6 SEASONS · 1,564 PICKS GRADED · EVERY ONE PUBLIC
67.0%
ACCURACY
+$525
PROFIT
+29.1%
DISAGREE ROI
52.4%
ATS RATE
W5
STREAK
W13
BEST STREAK
◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE◆ PICKS EVERY WEEK◆ PUBLISHED BEFORE KICKOFF◆ EVERY LOSS SHOWN◆ NO EDITS, NO DELETES◆ TRACKED PUBLICLY◆ RECEIPTS ON FILE

ACCURACY BY TIER

S
82.5%
A+
72.0%
A
71.8%
B
66.7%
C
59.7%

ATS BY TIER

S
47.8%
A+
47.9%
A
49.4%
B
52.8%
C
56.1%

BY SPREAD SIZE

CLOSE (0-3)
57.0%
MID (3.5-7)
68.6%
BIG (7.5+)
80.9%
CLOSE (0-3): 340-257 · MID (3.5-7): 412-189 · BIG (7.5+): 296-70

UPSET DETECTION

PICKING UNDERDOGS TO WIN OUTRIGHT
51.6%
148-139 (287 underdog picks)

MODEL CONSENSUS

UNANIMOUS
69.5%
SPLIT (2-1)
59.7%
UNANIMOUS: 808-354 · SPLIT: 240-162

HOME / AWAY

HOME
68.0%
AWAY
65.7%
HOME: 592-278 · AWAY: 456-238

FAVORITE / UNDERDOG

FAVORITE
70.5%
UNDERDOG
51.6%
FAV: 900-377 · DOG: 148-139

SEASON SUMMARY

TOTAL GAMES
1564
CORRECT
1048
DISAGREE PLAYS
287
DISAGREE WINS
148
ATS RECORD
803-729-32
ATS RATE
52.4%

SEASON TREND

2020
67.9%
2021
65.6%
2022
64.5%
2023
64.7%
2024
70.3%
2025
69.0%
2020: 163-77 · 2021: 168-88 · 2022: 165-91 · 2023: 176-96 · 2024: 189-80 · 2025: 187-84

VS INDUSTRY (ATS)

52.4% against the spread is the line that bankrupts everyone else. Against the spread we cover 52.4% — 0.0 points above the -110 break-even, in public, every week.
NOPUNT
52.4%
SHARP
55.0%
BREAK-EVEN
52.4%
AVERAGE
52.0%
COIN FLIP
50.0%
Break-even = 52.4% (standard -110 juice). Sharp = top 5% of bettors.

TIER CALIBRATION

HIT RATE BY TIER ACROSS SEASONS
TIER202122232425
S75%67%91%75%91%88%
A+74%74%66%71%74%73%
A78%85%90%50%71%71%
B

DISAGREE PROFIT CURVE

CUMULATIVE P/L ON VEGAS-DISAGREE PLAYS · 1U FLAT ($1) STAKES
$0+$50+$83202020212022202320242025

WEEKLY ACCURACY

WIN RATE BY WEEK · 2020–2025
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020
12-4
10-6
10-5
9-5
8-6
11-3
8-6
11-3
11-3
7-7
12-4
10-5
9-7
11-5
11-5
13-3
2021
9-7
11-5
11-5
12-4
12-2
11-2
9-6
8-6
7-7
8-7
9-6
8-6
2022
10-6
1-0
7-9
8-8
11-5
9-5
9-5
9-6
10-3
5-9
10-4
9-7
2023
10-6
11-5
11-5
14-2
9-5
11-4
5-8
11-5
11-3
8-6
8-6
11-5
2024
9-4
10-6
8-8
7-9
9-5
11-3
13-2
12-4
11-4
11-3
11-3
9-4
2025
12-4
13-3
11-5
10-5
7-7
8-7
13-2
10-3
9-5
10-4
14-1
10-4
75%+
60-74%
50-59%
35-49%
<35%

MONTHLY P/L

DISAGREE PLAY PROFIT BY MONTH · 30 MONTHS
+12
SEP
22-10
+18
OCT
38-20
+23
NOV
47-22
+20
DEC
43-22
+10
JAN
13-3
+10
SEP
20-12
+37
OCT
53-19
+9
NOV
34-26
+22
DEC
42-18
+5
JAN
19-13
+5
SEP
18-16
+19
OCT
46-27
+9
NOV
34-24
+26
DEC
44-17
+15
JAN
23-7
+17
SEP
33-16
+25
OCT
49-24
+16
NOV
38-20
+18
DEC
48-27
-1
JAN
8-9
+7
SEP
33-27
+32
OCT
46-14
+31
NOV
46-14
+38
DEC
56-17
+0
JAN
8-8
+28
SEP
46-17
+19
OCT
39-19
+30
NOV
50-20
+21
DEC
42-22
+4
JAN
10-6

PROFIT BY TIER

1U FLAT ($1) MONEYLINE STAKES
% is straight-up win rate. $ is moneyline P/L: favorite-heavy top tiers win often at short odds, underdog-leaning lower tiers win less but pay more — so higher SU% does not mean higher profit.
S
+$65
82.5% SU
94-20 (114)
A+
+$80
72.0% SU
154-60 (214)
A
+$29
71.8% SU
56-22 (78)
B
+$236
66.7% SU
504-252 (756)
C
+$114
59.7% SU
240-162 (402)

FULL LEDGER

1564 GAMES TRACKED
SeasonWeekMatchupPickTierSpreadScoreSUATSML P/L
2024W7DEN @ NONO ▲C+2.533-10LOSS✗-$1
2024W6BUF @ NYJBUFB-1.023-20WIN✓+$1
2024W6CIN @ NYGNYG ▲C+4.517-7LOSS✗-$1
2024W6DET @ DALDETB-3.547-9WIN✓+$1
2024W6ATL @ CARATLB-6.038-20WIN✓+$1
2024W6PIT @ LVPITC-3.532-13WIN✓+$1
2024W6LAC @ DENDEN ▲C+3.023-16LOSS✗-$1
2024W6WAS @ BALBALA+-6.523-30WIN✓+$1
2024W6IND @ TENIND ▲B+2.520-17WIN✓+$1
2024W6ARI @ GBGBB-5.513-34WIN✓+$1
2024W6HOU @ NEHOUB-6.541-21WIN✓+$1
2024W6TB @ NONO ▲C+3.551-27LOSS✗-$1
2024W6CLE @ PHIPHIA-8.016-20WIN✗+$1
2024W6JAX @ CHICHI ▲B+1.516-35WIN✓+$1
2024W6SF @ SEASFC-3.536-24WIN✓+$1
2024W5NO @ KCKCB-5.513-26WIN✓+$1
2024W5DAL @ PITPITC-2.520-17LOSS✗-$1
2024W5GB @ LALA ▲C+3.024-19LOSS✗-$1
2024W5NYG @ SEASEAB-7.029-20LOSS✗-$1
2024W5ARI @ SFSFA+-7.024-23LOSS✗-$1
2024W5LV @ DENDENB-3.018-34WIN✓+$1
2024W5MIA @ NEMIAC-2.015-10WIN✓+$1
2024W5CAR @ CHICHIB-4.010-36WIN✓+$1
2024W5BAL @ CINBALB-2.541-38WIN✓+$1
2024W5IND @ JAXJAXC-3.534-37WIN✗+$1
2024W5CLE @ WASWASB-3.013-34WIN✓+$1
2024W5BUF @ HOUBUF ▲B+1.020-23LOSS✗-$1
2024W5NYJ @ MINMINB-2.517-23WIN✓+$1
2024W5TB @ ATLATLC-2.530-36WIN✓+$1
2024W4SEA @ DETDETB-3.529-42WIN✓+$1
2024W4TEN @ MIAMIAA-2.531-12LOSS✗-$1
2024W4BUF @ BALBUF ▲B+2.510-35LOSS✗-$1
2024W4KC @ LACKCB-7.517-10WIN✗+$1
2024W4CLE @ LVLV ▲C+2.516-20WIN✓+$1
2024W4NE @ SFSFA+-10.513-30WIN✓+$1
2024W4WAS @ ARIARIB-3.542-14LOSS✗-$1
2024W4NO @ ATLNO ▲B+2.524-26LOSS✓-$1
2024W4JAX @ HOUHOUB-5.520-24WIN✗+$1
2024W4PIT @ INDPITB-2.524-27LOSS✗-$1
2024W4DEN @ NYJNYJB-7.510-9LOSS✗-$1
2024W4MIN @ GBGBB-2.531-29LOSS✗-$1
2024W4LA @ CHILA ▲B+3.018-24LOSS✗-$1
2024W4PHI @ TBPHIC-1.016-33LOSS✗-$1
2024W4CIN @ CARCINB-4.534-24WIN✓+$1
2024W4DAL @ NYGDALB-5.520-15WIN✗+$1
2024W3WAS @ CINCINB-7.538-33LOSS✗-$1
2024W3JAX @ BUFBUFS-4.010-47WIN✓+$1
2024W3KC @ ATLKCB-3.022-17WIN✓+$1
2024W3BAL @ DALDAL ▲B+1.528-25LOSS✗-$1
2024W3SF @ LASFB-6.024-27LOSS✗-$1
PAGE 10 OF 32
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64%
65%
65%
67%
73%
65%
C67%59%53%57%55%64%
Min 3 picks per tier/season. Higher tiers should consistently outperform lower tiers.
12-2
9-7
13-3
11-5
8-8
12-3
8-5
11-5
12-4
13-2
11-5
9-4
6-9
10-6
11-5
12-4
8-8
13-3
10-3
13-3
11-5
13-3
8-8
10-6
10-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
10-6